Kamu Harcamalarının Farklı Beceri Düzeylerindeki İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dinamik Panel Eşik Veri Yaklaşımı

Abstract

In recent years, the accelerating process of globalization has led to significant transformations in labor market conditions. Digitalization, automation, and technological progress have reshaped the sectoral and qualitative structure of employment, contributing to the spread of a phenomenon referred to as labor market polarization. In this process, while middle-skill occupations have relatively declined, the share of low- and high-skill jobs in total employment has increased. This structural transformation affects not only employment dynamics but also income distribution and equality of opportunity. This dissertation aims to examine the impact of public expenditures on the structure of the labor force within this transformation process by disaggregating the effects according to skill levels. Employing a dynamic panel threshold model with data from 38 countries over the period 2000–2022, the study investigates the heterogeneous effects of public spending on employment. The findings reveal that the effect of public expenditures on employment differs once R&D expenditures exceed a certain threshold, and that this effect generally tends to be employment-reducing. However, the skill-level disaggregation shows that the impact is not distributed symmetrically across labor groups. In particular, the positive effect of public expenditures on high-skilled employment increases significantly when the R&D threshold is surpassed, whereas public expenditures are found to reduce employment in medium-skilled groups in both pre- and post-threshold regimes. For low-skilled labor, the effect of public expenditures remains positive, but this favorable impact weakens once the R&D threshold is crossed. The results suggest that under conditions of accelerated technological progress, public expenditures may have the potential to exacerbate job polarization. Overall, the study demonstrates that public spending exerts important influences on labor market dynamics and distributional relations. In light of the findings, it is argued that fiscal policies should be designed with an approach that explicitly takes into account different skill levels.