Zaman Serileri Yöntemleri İle Hane Halkı Enerji Tüketiminin Modellenmesi

Abstract

The global increase in energy demand, climate change, supply problems and the need to use energy efficiently have led to the need to examine energy consumption. In particular, household energy consumption is a critical focal point for energy efficiency strategies as it constitutes a significant portion of total energy consumption. Accurate estimation of household energy consumption is important for optimizing energy generation plans, enabling demand side management programs and enabling consumers to save energy. The main objective of this study is to analyze the household electricity consumption and the macroeconomic variables that are expected to explain this consumption between 2007 and 2023 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) and Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) time series analysis methods. Household electricity consumption was found to be best explained by the variables of household numbers, household disposable income and cooling day degrees, and the MTSA method yielded results with a lower error criterion. In this context, realistic forecasting results were obtained. This study contributes to the literature in terms of analyzing the determinants of the change in household electricity consumption with time series methods, especially with the MSSA method, which has not been applied in this field.