Modelling The Biomass Energy Potential in Electricity Generation to Support Türkiye's Transition to Low-Carbon Future

Abstract

Bioenergy represents the most utilized renewable energy source globally, particularly in developing countries. These countries leverage this potential to enhance their energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. The predominant application of this energy remains traditional cooking and heating. Nevertheless, the utilization of this potential for electricity generation has been on the rise.

The potential role of bioenergy in achieving a sustainable and secure electricity mix in Türkiye is aligned with the country's ambitious renewable energy targets. The dispatchability of bioenergy is of particular importance in complementing the intermittent nature of solar and wind power, particularly in scenarios with limited storage capacity. Bioenergy potential is considered unpredictable, and there is a lack of clarity among governments regarding the expansion of bioenergy capacity in their future renewable energy targets. Türkiye is among the countries that have increased their bioenergy capacity for electricity generation by providing support to the private sector. Nevertheless, the country has yet to establish clear capacity expansion targets for this energy source.

This study assesses the long-term potential of predictable and sustainable biomass resources for electricity generation, considering a range of bioenergy demand scenarios. The selected biomass types for this study are crop residues, firewood, animal manure, the organic fraction of municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge. To generate electricity from these resources, two distinct technologies were employed: direct combustion for solid biomass (crop residues and firewood) and biogas and landfill gas (LFG) production for wet biomass (animal manure, organic fraction of municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge). The results indicate that the total energy potential from solid biomass could reach 1200 petajoules by 2050, while the potential for biogas and LFG gas production from wet biomass could reach 11.61 billion cubic meters by the same year.

In this study, four distinct scenarios were developed using the LEAP modelling tool for the purpose of analysing electricity supply projections. The reference scenario was developed with consideration of the National Energy Plan of Türkiye, which encompasses the period from 2020 to 2035 and has been extended to 2050 for the purpose of analyzing electricity supply projections. The results of this scenario demonstrate that the proportion of renewable energy in electricity generation could reach 73%, due to the expansion of solar, wind, and nuclear energy capacity, and a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation of approximately 48% relative to the base year (2020). Three bioenergy demand scenarios (low, moderate, and high) were developed as a parent scenario for use in the tool. Furthermore, the scenarios diverge in their projections of biomass utilization rates in electricity generation over the projection period. The results of the bioenergy demand scenarios indicate that the renewable energy share in total generation could reach 82% by 2050, with 17% of bioenergy contributing to the total generation in 2050. Additionally, the GHG reduction potential could reach 69% relative to the base year's value. The cost of electricity generation in scenarios involving bioenergy is higher due to the high capital costs associated with biomass power plants. In comparison to the reference scenario, the total cumulative cost could reach 783 million 2020 US$ higher over the projection period. Furthermore, the cost of one ton of GHG abatement under bioenergy demand scenarios was estimated to range between 11.1 and 11.5 US$.

The scope of this study is limited to the projection of biomass potential for electricity generation, with a focus on the most commonly utilized conversion technologies. It is possible that the potential will be higher with unpredictable biomass resources including food and drink industry wastes, domestic and imported wood chips, and wood pellets. Furthermore, as the efficiencies and costs of biomass power plants increase in the future, it is likely that more bioenergy will be included in the electricity mix of Türkiye. Nevertheless, the results of this study will provide crucial insights for policymakers, demonstrating the significant impact of sustainable bioenergy on the development of Türkiye's electricity supply mix and the achievement of long-term energy objectives. Furthermore, it will address the challenges associated with the utilization of biomass resources and encourage further investigation into additional biomass potential.