Economic Growth, Rural-Urban Mıgratıon, and Fertility Decline in Türkiye

Abstract

This thesis aims to explain the role of economic growth and time cost of reproduction in fertility decline in rural and urban regions of Türkiye between 1978 and 2021 under the assumption of same fertility preferences in both regions. To do this, we construct a simple two-region model with endogenous technology and endogenous fertility. The production side of the model follows Lucas (2009). On the consumption side, households in both rural and urban regions choose optimal fertility levels depending on the time cost of reproduction and income per household. We design a benchmark calibration algorithm that allows us to match regional fertility levels and rural-urban fertility differences as well as rural-urban population shares. With such a calibration exercise, we obtain the dynamics of some unobserved regional variables: income levels and time cost of reproduction. The first major result of the thesis is that the fertility rates are higher in rural areas than in urban areas. However, both regions show a similar trend of decreasing fertility rates most of the period as economic growth rises. The technological progress promotes higher income and causes to decline in fertility rates for both regions. But the rise in per capita income in urban regions is greater than that of rural regions. Finally, we found that the time cost of reproduction is higher in urban regions than rural regions. These differences are also another factor causing the differences in fertility levels across regions. Besides, the household income levels in both regions are the primary determinant of fertility decline. The results of the study have important implications for catching-up the frontier country, establishing sustainable economic growth, and reducing the regional differences.