Hayat Tablosu Verileri Kullanarak Elde Edilen Matematiksel Model ve Uygulamaları

Abstract

Temperature is the most dominant factor affecting mosquito population dynamics. Life tables quantify the impact of temperature on development durations and mortality rates at different development stages. They provide a valuable source of information for developing accurate mathematical representations of temperature-driven population dynamics. In the scope of this thesis, by using available life table records of Culex quinquefasciatus obtained at a range of temperatures, a mathematical population dynamics model (sPop) was developed. The aim of this thesis is to assess the use of mathematical modelling in predicting the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus over the regions with known temperature profiles. According to this, a monitoring study was conducted at 15 locations distributed over four different regions of Ankara. As a result, a total of 1178 mosquitoes were sampled from all the locations, while temperature recordings were obtained from seven locations. The model was found in agreement with the observations made at Imrahor-1, while partial agreement was detected between the Dodurga-1 observations and corresponding model predictions. When used with the corresponding ERA5 temperature profiles, the model demonstrated partial agreement with the observations in Karaoğlan, Dodurga, and İmrahor regions. The agreement improved in all regions and localities upon increasing the time resolution of model iterations and temperature data. The author concludes that the inclusion of additional climatic variables such as precipitation, relative humidity, and water temperature in high temporal resolution might increase the predictive power of this ambient temperature-driven population dynamics model.