Türkiye'de İlk Defa Salgın Oluşturan Viral Bir Etkenin Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemiyle Mekânsal Analizi: Sığırların Nodüler Ekzantemi (Lumpy Skin Disease-Lsd)

Abstract

Spatial analysis are of increasing importance in health researches in terms of the distribution of health incidents, collecting data about the regions where they are clustered. The aim of our study is to investigate spatially notifiable Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), causes noduls on the skin, outbreaks first seen in August 2013 in Turkey and turned into endemic outbreak between 2013 and 2017, to determine the regions where they are clustered, to assess the patterns during the years. Geographic information system (GIS) software QGIS™ was used for data analysis and SaTScan™ was used for cluster analysis. Clusters were determined by the space-time permutation model. 1552 LSD outbreaks data obtained from OIE and Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry were used. During the 5-year period, outbreaks were observed in 68 provinces, 340, districts and 1289 villages. The most outbreaks were in 2014 (n=784), the least outbreaks were in 2017 (n=17), the most cases were in 2016 (n=3258) and the least cases were in 2017 (n=130). The most outbreaks were reported in Sivas province (n=164) and the most outbreaks were reported in August (n=249). The clustering analysis showed that cases were clustered in different regions by years. Statistically significant clusters were detected in provinces where the population of dairy cattle is high, with a humid, warm climate and close to countries such as Syria, Iran, Iraq and Georgia. Outbreaks is observed to be concentrated around Asi, Kizilirmak, Murat and Ceyhan rivers on the created outbreak maps. Total of 4524 animals were culled for five years and the highest culling occurred in 2016 (n = 2717). After the least outbreak occurred in 2017, LSD outbreaks started to rise again in 2018 (n = 53). Culling is seen succesful way against to LSD. It is recommended that the protection provided by the sheep-goat pox vaccine against LSD needs to be revised. This is the first published study conducted cluster analysis with LSD outbreaks seen in Turkey.