Vergi Oranları ve Vergi Geliri İlişkisi Açısından Vergi Uyumu: Panel Eşik Regresyon Analizi

Abstract

DAŞDEMİR, Sevinç. Tax Compliance with Respect to the Relationship between Tax Rates and the Tax Revenue: A Panel Threshold Regression Analysis, Master’s Thesis, Ankara, 2019. Looking at the world economies, it is seen that one of the main financial objectives of the states is to obtain an optimal level of public revenue. In general, the vast majority of public revenues all over the world are constituted by taxes. It is not always easy to ensure that taxes, which constitute the majority of public revenues, are collected in a successful system. Therefore, the concept of tax is not only an important concept for the authorities but also a problem. Hence, it is substantial for states to design a successful tax system and achieve the optimal tax revenue. Considering the fact that the ultimate taxpayers are individuals, individuals constitute the fundamentals of developing a successful tax system. In order to develop a successful tax system and to achieve the optimal level of tax revenues, the attitude of individuals towards the tax should be positive. The positive attitude of the individual towards the tax is explained in the literature by the concept known as tax compliance. It is assumed that tax revenues will increase depending on the level of tax compliance; because, the high tax compliance will reduce the negative reactions to the tax and decrease the informal activities. This study investigates the relationship of some economic and social factors effecting tax compliance with tax revenues using panel data methods with the data of 35 OECD countries over the period 2000-2015. First part of the study defines the the concepts related to the tax compliance, second part of the study discusses the factors affecting tax complicance and investiages the relationship of tax compliance with informality and tax revenues. Finally, the third part investigates the relationship of some economic and social factors, which may affect the tax revenues and tax compliance, with real tax revenues using fixed effect panel data analysis and threshold panel data methods. The results show that increasing the tax rates in countries with high level of income and human development, low level of informality and low agricultural employment decreased the real tax revenues less compared to the countries with opposite characteristics. There is a positive correlation between gross domestic product per capita and real tax revenues, and a a negative correlation between inflation rate and Gastil Index and real tax revenues. This shows that the relationship between economic development and real tax revenues and the relationship between political freedom and real tax revenues are positive, while the relationship between the economic instability and real tax revenues is negative.