Modeling The Trends of European Secondary Resource and Revenue Flows for Solar E-Waste, 2030-2050

Abstract

Circular economy is a comprehensive strategy for minimizing waste in the long run for developing the economy that aims to benefit the industry, society and the environment. Effective management of solar panel waste is becoming an increasingly important part of the transition to green energy, due to importance of recycling for circularity.

This study was designed to examine the recycling potential of solar panels in terms of the effective management of the revenue obtained from recycling, to observe the changes that will occur with the effect of the price, and to offer economical and environmentally friendly options on the way to the green transition. The study focuses specifically on Europe to observe the projection between 2030 and 2050. The study was divided into two main branches according to management of revenue obtained from the recycling of solar panels as directed to solar industry & other industries. Key sectors for directing revenue were determined and the study was carried out within these sectors. These key sectors are; Construction Industry, Packaging Industry, Health and Medical Industry and Automotive Industry. Within the scope of the study, Vensim PLE, a system dynamics software, was used to create the models and SimaPro, an LCA software, was used to evaluate environmental impacts. In the analyses, it was determined that solar panel recycling would yield 1.04E+06 dollars in 2030 and 1.53E+09 dollars in 2050 in the minimum scenario which is potentially feasible, and 2.08E+06 dollars in 2030 and 2.10E+13 dollars in 2050 in the maximum scenario which is the most profitable one. Accordingly, it has been determined that the revenue to be obtained in 2030 in the most profitable scenario is 2 times more than the potentially feasible scenario. Using the potentially feasible average price in the analysis of cost avoidance by using secondary resources in lieu of primary resources will provide a total avoided cost of $11.05 million in 2030 and $5.82E+03 million in 2050 for all key sectors. Using the more profitable higher price would avoid total costs of $66.46 million in 2030 and $3.50E+04 million in 2050 for all key sectors. Accordingly, it was determined that the cost avoided in 2030 in the most profitable scenario was approximately 6 times higher than in the potentially feasible scenario.

In LCA analyses, it has been determined that the recycling process generates less emissions than the landfill option, and similarly, organic solar panels generate less emissions than c-Si solar panels, so they are more environmentally friendly for all impact categories.

The data show that the revenue of recycling solar panels is quite high and should be evaluated in line with circular economy practices. Although it is economically favorable to produce monocrystalline solar panels in directing revenue to the solar industry, it would be better to invest in organic solar panels in terms of environment. Other industries can avoid cost by using secondary resources in lieu of primary resources. In this way, the expenses of the industries will be restricted, economic gain will be maximized and a greener approach will be adopted. However, it was determined that there may be fluctuations in prices in the secondary material market due to reasons such as competition. Based on this result it is recommended that states adopt sanctions such as price fixation policy to prevent this. It was determined that the amount of use in secondary resources will also increase when the prices are reduced and fixed after the state intervenes. Accordingly, it is expected that there will be a total increase of approximately 13% in secondary resource use in all key sectors as a result of price fixation.

As a result, the thesis showed the complexity of secondary market. Although this complexity does not make it possible to achieve circularity, circularity can be achieved with more effort in secondary material management.