Modelling the Electricity and Heat Production Sector in Line with Türkiye’s Net Zero Emissions Target

Abstract

Various international agreements and mechanisms are established to mitigate climate change by setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 41% from the Business as Usual level in 2030 and set its net zero target. Thus, reducing the emissions of the electricity and heat production sector, primarily driven by fossil fuels, will help achieve its emission target. This study aims to provide a pathway for designing the Turkish electricity and heat production sector and its policy reflection to achieve a net zero emissions target for 2053. Türkiye's electricity sector is analyzed based on five scenarios with different emission pathways between 2021 and 2053. The model results show a substantial increase in installed capacity, generation and cumulative investment costs to achieve the net zero target in the two scenarios, dominantly using nuclear power plants and fossil power plants with carbon capture and storage. Although the increment in installed capacity has a similar level in a third net zero emissions scenario, which integrates more wind and solar energy investments with the help of energy storage technologies, with these two scenarios, the cost of generation and cumulative investment costs are smaller than in these scenarios. An additional investment between 340 and 391 billion USD is necessary to achieve the net zero emissions target over business as usual between 2020 and 2053. It is calculated that 19-23% of the additional investment costs over business as usual level can be covered by carbon revenues. On the other hand, a minor increase in generation cost, emissions and installed capacity is expected when an emission reduction of 40% from the Business as Usual level is estimated. These results reveal the need for significant changes in its energy policies to pave the way for substantial investment in renewable and nuclear energy, battery storage installations, and power plants with carbon capture and storage to achieve the net zero target.