Yüksek Teknoloji Ürünlerinin Talep Tahmini Ve Envanter Planlaması İçin Entegre Bir Yaklaşım: Güvenlik Kameraları İçin Uygulama Çalışması

Abstract

Stock management is one of the important stages in the production and supply processes of companies. However, it can remain in the background in some cases. Within the scope of the thesis, it is aimed to make improvements on stock management in an institution whose first priority is to meet customer demands. In order to do this, the demands for security cameras, one of the most popular products of the institution, were examined and the areas open to improvement in the forecasting method of these demands were investigated. Sales in the institution are carried out according to projects, and security cameras take their place as a critical component of the integrated system sold. Estimates are accordingly made by project management teams and may be updated throughout the year for various reasons. It is not possible to make a clear forecast due to unforeseen project increases or decreases, sales occurring earlier or later than planned due to the condition of the field where the cameras will be installed. Since the amount and frequency of demands vary for the reasons stated, it has been determined that classical demand forecasting methods are not suitable for forecasting, and it has been concluded that it would be more appropriate to use intermittent demand forecasting methods. For this reason, the annual total sales amount was estimated for the last two years by using various intermittent demand forecasting methods. The three most preferred camera types in the projects were used for estimations. The results were compared with the predictions made by the project teams at the beginning of the year. In the second part of the thesis, an inventory plan was created for a camera type for which demand was estimated. For the relevant camera, the sales amount estimated by the intermittent demand forecasting method, which has the least error rate, was used and was divided into quarters according to the realization rates in previous years. The results obtained were compared with the plans made by the project teams. It has been concluded that more effective stock management can be achieved with the mentioned demand forecasting and inventory planning approaches.