Evaluation of Wind Power Plant Electricity Generation at the Marmara Basin based on Climate Change Projections

Abstract

Projections indicate a continuing rise in greenhouse gas emissions until 2100, exhibiting an influence on several aspects of climate, such as temperature and wind speed. This research aims to develop recommendations aligning with Türkiye's renewable energy strategies, evaluating the possible impacts of changing wind energy-related parameters on wind power plants. The study focuses explicitly on wind energy-based electricity generation in the Marmara Basin, which accounts for 48% of the installed wind power capacity in the Marmara Region. Machine learning and statistical methods are used to develop models to predict future wind energy-based electricity generation. These models consider wind speed and temperature estimates derived from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 between 2016-2098. The findings suggest an anticipated decrease in electricity generation from wind power plants in the Marmara Basin, with a predicted fall ranging from -6% to -4% by 2098. This loss is expected to impact about 87 to 144 thousand households' electricity demand, which may require establishing additional wind power facilities.