Lng Sektörü İçin 2050 Senaryoları Delfi Yönteminin Senaryo Planlama ile Birlikte Kullanılması

Abstract

Nowadays, there are changes in the energy industry. New resource discoveries, renewable energy investments, technological development and new hydrocarbon transportation methods are being developed. The importance of LNG, a method of transportation and use of natural gas in the changing energy market, is increasing day by day. Change causes uncertainty and affects decision makers. One of the methods used to be ready for changes is scenario planning. In scenario planning, researchers try to plan by creating scenarios that include possible, plausible future. In the energy sector, scenario planning is actively used. In fact, Shell, one of the major energy companies, continues its scenario planning studies on a regular basis. This study aims to examine the LNG sector in the world between 2020 and 2050 in the form of sector analysis by trying to combine the LNG, delphi and scenario planning, and to create scenarios for LNG market in 2050. The scenario planning methodology suggested by O’Brien and Tapinos was used. It was explained how the scenario planning method could be applied, the steps were examined in detail, and an attempt was made to create a guide for other researchers on how this method could be used. In determining the uncertainty list and prominent uncertainties, the opinions of twelve experts working in this field around the world were consulted by applying the Delphi method. The uncertainties that come to the fore are; Wars, Price mechanism, Sanctions, Russia, Economic Crises, China, Demand Forecast Uncertainties, Commodity Price Changes, Changes in Legal Regulations, USA, Financing Costs and Inflation. Four scenarios were created. These scenarios are Russia vs USA, which predicts that the US-Russia war will continue, Proactive vs Deactive, which predicts that price crises will continue, Net Zero vs EU based on legal and environmental regulations, and Transformation and Acquisitions, where fluctuations in commodity prices continue. The created scenarios were considered together with the strategic group analyzes and strategy recommendations were created for them. Strategic groups are Exporters, Importers, Portfolio Players, Trading Houses and National Companies. The prominent strategies are market development, cooperation and storage capacity increases. The basic strategies proposed for the LNG sector are based on ensuring supply/demand security through capacity increases and preventing competitive pricing by collaborating with other companies instead of competing.