Güvenilirlik Analizi ve Maliyete Etkisi : Elektronik Kartlar Üzerine Bır Uygulama

Abstract

Reliability theory has become an independent discipline in recent years for use in a variety of fields, including mathematics, statistics, probability theory, and particularly the actuarial sciences.In the actuarial sciences, the concept of reliability is used in life and non-life insurance not only for estimating or calculating life probabilities, but also for estimating the probability that a device will perform its duty without fail during its lifetime. The uncertainty of the death age of a person or the expiration of a system/part is expressed with probability concepts. The most important of these concepts is life analysis. Selection of the most appropriate life function and evaluation of the results of use of the chosen life function are the leading factors that directly affect reliability in survival analysis. Products/portfolios or distributions with high reliability values have always been preferred by customers or decision makers. In addition to reputation, repeat business, customer requirements and competitive advantage, cost analysis also plays an important role in making the concept of reliability stand out as an important feature in products. Reliability data is used to examine the cost-effectiveness of products. In this thesis, the concept of reliability and the life cycle of the product are examined in terms of electronic cards, which are of great importance in defense industry.Electronic cards are iv one of the most important subsytems in all electronic systems. The reliability of the system to which the electronic cards are connected precludes the expected economic benefits in other sectors, especially in the defense industry. In this study, in the reliability analysis of electronic cards, the exponential and Weibull distributions, which are the most preferred but have a thin tail structure, as well as the Lomax distribution, which has a thicker tail structure, are also examined. Mean square error, maximum likelihood method and modified maximum likelihood method were used for the estimation of Lomax and Weibull distribution parameters. In the application part of the study, simulation technique was used to generate data on electronic cards. The mean squared error was used as a criterion to compare the methods used to estimate the parameters of the Lomax and Weibull distributions. The simulation study was repeated for different sample sizes and different parameter values, and conclusions were drawn. Reliability values were obtained under the assumptions of exponential, Lomax and Weibull distributions for electronic board components and the results were compared. In this study, the case of increasing the reliability value by redundancy method was also examined. The effect of reliability values and redundancy status examined in the study on the cost of the product was also examined and the dimensions of the effect were shown as a result of the analysis. In this way, the importance of the relationship between reliability and cost has been revealed.