Türkiye Doğal Gaz Dağıtım Şirketlerinin Mali Başarısızlığının Belirlenmesi

Abstract

All businesses are set up to be long lasting, but they can fall into financial difficulties which may lead to bankruptcy in their business life span. Although bankruptcy is the ultimate financial failure of the company, the failure in the management of the company actually starts to occur before bankruptcy. In this sense, it is important to identify the financial failure of businesses by making use of certain criteria. This should be done long before they bankrupt and get into similar difficult circumstances. Early determination of financial failure is deemed to be particularly necessary for several economic sectors. Financial institutions, companies listed on the stock exchange, and companies that perform public service stand out as such companies. The natural gas distribution, which became widespread in Turkey after 2001, is mainly public service and provided by private companies. For this reason, these companies are under provision of Energy Market Regulatory Authority which acts as regulatory and supervisory authority. In this study, factor, discriminant and logistic regression analyses were used to ensure that the financial ratios of natural gas distribution companies can be used within a model to estimate the financial failure of these companies. As a result of these analyses, it has been shown that financial ratios are able to define the financial failure and that financial failure can be determined within a model to be formed. In factor analysis, 11 independent variables are reduced to 2 components and financial failure of distribution companies are estimated with an approximately 72% success rate. In discriminant analysis, this success rate is found to be around 83%. In logistic regression analysis, a model with an average of 87% successful classification is constructed.