Kömürden Metanol Üretilecek Bir Pilot Tesisin Tasarım Süreçleri ile Uyumlanmış Bir Teknik Risk Yönetim Yöntemi

Abstract

In this study, a technical risk management methodology is developed which can be used in design processes of a pilot plant project aiming to produce methanol from coal gasification synthesis gas. Chemical plant design processes often involve more than one project phase that are divided by gate-pass approach. These phases follow a waterfall trajectory through which each step is aimed to develop the previous step further. In the literature, these steps are often divided into four and classified as FEL 1, FEL 2, FEL 3 and detailed design for which risk management activities are done for different purposes. Accordingly, among these phases, the governing risk factors, methodologies to manage these risks factors, timing for relevant activities and the level of detail for application significantly differs. In addition, the specific characteristics of each project, the scope and potentially differing design activities necessitate harmonization of risk management activities with project lifecycle. In chemical plant design processes, these harmonization efforts often performed heuristically and do not follow a systematic approach. PMI (Project Management Institute)’s risk management philosophy sets the ground for developing a planning methodology used for harmonization of risk management activities with project lifecycle in this study. After the definition of each step being used for characterization of the project and relevant design phases, risk categories and activities are addressed to the project life cycle. Within the scope of this study, a holistic risk management strategy is followed to involve risks under the categories of technological readiness, inherent safety, constructability, process safety and other several project technical risk categories. A case study for the developed methodology is done in a methanol production pilot plant project designed by TUBİTAK. For this purpose, once after the project phases are characterized and risk management activities are addressed to relevant design phases, risk assessment studies are done. Major risks are presented under a risk register. It is anticipated that the risks identified within this study will advice in risk planning studies of further projects for methanol production technologies and in discussions of commercialization. Additionally, it is particularly aimed to propose this methodology as a guideline to TUBİTAK for technical risk management activities of further pilot plants.