İkiz Açıklarda Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1998-2012 Dönemi İçin Türkiye Uygulaması

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the connection between fiscal policy and foreign trade policy. For this purpose, the theory of twin deficits and the relevant literature explored intensively. Progress in budget balance and current account balance and the relationship between these two balances have been examined since 1990 s. Moreover, the relationsip between budget balance and current account balance has been analyzed during the internal economic crises that Turkey has faced since the 1990s and throughout 2008 global financial crisis. In the empirical part of the thesis, the connection between budget balance and foreign trade balance is analyzed by using vector auto regression (VAR), error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality. In this part quarterly data between 1998 and 2012 were used.