Depremde İmal Edilmiş Riskler Karşısında Bireylerin Mücadele Kapasitesinin Anlaşılmasına Yönelik Bir Derin Öğrenme Modeli Denemesi

Abstract

This thesis examines the “manufactured risk regime” revealed by the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, particularly in Hatay, through the disaster coping capacity of individuals and households. Bringing together Beck’s risk society, Giddens’s reflexive modernity and neoliberal responsibilization debates, Bourdieu’s capital approach, and the ecological/community resilience literature, it develops an original 5+1 Capital Model comprising economic, social (bonding–bridging–linking), cultural, human, physical, and social-ecosystem dimensions. This model is used to conceptualize and measure coping capacity along the tension between “the naturalness of hazard and the sociality of vulnerability.”

Within an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design, a survey was administered to 458 households across 15 districts of Hatay. The 5+1 capital indicators were psychometrically tested through EFA/CFA and integrated into a structured resilience index using MIMIC and causal-chain SEM models. Subsequently, XGBoost, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, and Decision Trees were employed to model multidimensionally resilience scores; SHAP and GAM analyses were used to uncover threshold, saturation, and regime effects of capital blocks, as well as their interactions with demographic variables. Latent Profile Analysis and K-Means clustering identified four core resilience profiles, while in-depth and focus group interviews combined with Gephi-based network analysis made the quantitative patterns visible in everyday practices.

The findings show that economic capital, the public service ecosystem, housing resilience, and bonding social capital constitute the core layers of coping capacity, whereas cultural and human capital, together with bridging/linking ties, play complementary and reinforcing roles. The study thus offers a theoretically integrated capital model and an empirical basis for targeted policy recommendations tailored to different resilience profiles.