Banka Kredi Hacmi ile İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

While economic growth is important in all countries; in particular, it is one of the main economic objectives of developing countries. In general, developed countries are expected to maintain a certain growth rate; on the other hand, it is desirable for developing countries to display growth above this rate. Although there are many elements of economic growth; in our study, the relationship between economic growth and bank credit volume is analyzed. Generally, it is argued that bank credits have an important role in the economic growth of countries. In the literature, this view is known as supply leading hypothesis. Accordingly, transferring savings to entrepreneurs through the banking system will result in an increase in investment stock. Another view, which is also known in the literature as the demand following hypothesis, suggest that economic growth will lead to an increase in bank loan volume. In this study, in order to examine the relationship between total credit volume and economic growth for Turkey we use quarterly data from 2003:I to 2017:III and we applied the bound testing approach developed ARDL framework by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) to test the cointegration. Next, we estimated the level relations and short-run dynamics. In addition, deposit banks are divided into public and private banks and the relationship between credit volumes of these banks and economic growth is also analyzed. Therefore, the main purpose of the study is to examine this relationship in terms of bank types after the relationship between bank credit volume and economic growth is determined. For this purpose, firstly the financial system, banking sector, development of banking, bank credits, macroeconomic effects of bank credits are discussed and then the relationship between bank credits and economic growth is examined. According to our empirical study, it is observed that the increase in total credit volume of deposit banks in the long term had a negative effect on GDP, but this effect is positive in the short term. While this result is similar for public banks, we observed that these effects have opposite signs for private banks.