Türkiye'de Doğal ve Konjonktürel İşsizlik Bileşenlerinin Eşleşme Modeli ve Akım Yaklaşım İle Belirlenmesi:Kısa ve Uzun Dönem Etkiler

Abstract

The purpose of this study is decomposing and investigating structural and cyclical components of unemployment in Turkey by modern labor market theories (flow approach and search and matching model) and investigating relationship between long-run labor productivity and unemployment with Turkish labor market data. Turkish Employment Agency generate data that contain rich information about labor market, this study also aims to use the data for labor market analysis. Although there are many studies examining Turkish labor market, the few of them has used the flow approach and search and matching model. The studies haven’t involved detalied analysis separation. The analysis covers the period 2005-2017 and used Turkish Employment Agency Database and Turkish Statistical Institute Database. The natural unemployment rate of Turkey has been obtained long term average of job finding rate and separation rate by using flow approach. Beveridge curve has been generated by estimating the matching function. The effect of long-term labor productivity on unemployment has been investigated using the Capitalization Model. According to the results of the study, the average job finding rate and the separation rate in Turkey increased in 2013 and changed the natural unemployment rate. In addition, the response of job finding and separation rates to the GDP deficit / surplus has changed, leading to a change in the Okun’s coefficients in this period. These changes in the Turkish labor market have been achieved as a result of the Active Labor Market Policies and the rapid growth of Construction and Services sectors. Long-run job creation condition of the Capitalization Model has been tested Turkish labor market data. Rate of filling the vacancies of the companies in Turkey has acted consistently with this condition. According to this result, relationship between long run labor productivity and unemployment isn’t rejected in Turkish labor market data.