İşsizlik Sigortası Fonunun Farklı Senaryolara Dayalı Aktüeryal Değerlendirmesi

Abstract

National and international preventions are being taken everywhere in the world in order to keep the long term individual, social and economic effects of unemployment to the minimum. Unemployment insurance, which is one of the passive employment policies, is also being implemented to increase the involuntary decline of insured employees' welfare and to minimize the social effects. In 1999, unemployment insurance, which entered into our lives with the Law No: 4447 on Unemployment Insurance, attracts attention from the actuarial point of view because it has reached a significant fund value that every day more unemployed benefits. In this study, the unemployment rate will take place in the coming years is estimated and the actuarial valuaiton of the Unemployment Insurance Fund was made with the estimations also taken from different institutions. Path analysis was used when determining the variables affecting the unemployment rate. After the variables were determined, the unemployment rate is estimated with the Artificial Neural Networks time series model. Finally, taking into account national data and estimates, as well as previous year events, the probable effects of all variables on the Unemployment Insurance Fund were examined under different scenarios. The effects of life expectancies were examined using two different mortality tables.