Akdeniz Havzası’ndaki Endemik Karasal Omurgalıların Demografik Tarihi ve İklim Değişiminin Dağılımları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

This thesis examines the demographic history and the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic terrestrial vertebrates—amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals—in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot. The study investigates how these species have responded to historical and ongoing environmental changes during significant climatic periods such as the Last Glacial Maximum, the Middle Holocene, and the Last Interglacial. Using ecological niche modeling and Bayesian Skyline Plot analyses, the potential future distributions and population dynamics of species under various climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2070 were modeled.

In amphibians, the climatic suitability patterns of 36 endemic species were analyzed, highlighting the significant effect of precipitation on their distribution. It is projected that some regions may shift from biodiversity hotspots to coldspots in the future. For birds, analyses of 45 endemic species assessed their distribution and population dynamics, revealing that historical climate fluctuations have led to significant changes in distributions and that species may shift northward under high emission scenarios in the future.

Studies on mammals involving 31 endemic species showed that glacial refugia played a critical role in preserving species richness. Significant contractions in suitable habitat areas are expected in the future, especially in southern regions. For reptiles, analyses of 50 endemic species indicated that some areas have functioned as long-term biological refugia and may experience serious losses under high emission scenarios.

The results demonstrate that climate change has significant effects on the distributions and population dynamics of endemic terrestrial vertebrates in the Mediterranean Basin. These findings underscore the importance of developing dynamic and comprehensive conservation strategies that consider climatic factors to preserve the region's biodiversity.