Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Bilanço Kanalının Sektör Bilançoları Üzerindeki Etkinliği: Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which the firm balance sheet channel, one of the monetary policy transmission channels, is effective on a sectoral basis in Turkey. Using the Sectoral Balance Sheets data of Current Asests, Short-Term Liabilities, Net Profit/Loss published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) between 2012 and 2022; the effects of macroeconomic variables of the policy interest rate, required reserve ratio, inflation, economic growth rate, and narrow (M1) and broad (M2) money supplies on the balance sheets of firms, in 17 main sectors, were evaluated with the panel data analysis method. The analysis classified the 17 main sectors into capitalintensive, labor-intensive, and technology/information-intensive sectors. For model selection, F-test, Likelihood Ratio (LR) test, unit and time effects tests, and the Hausman test were applied using Stata-15 software and the random effects model was determined to be the most appropriate model for the panel data analysis. When the model assumptions were examined, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation issues were detected. Therefore, the Huber-Eicker-White robust estimator was used to enhance the reliability of the results. In conclusion, it was found that the firm balance sheet channel operates strongly and distinctly in capital-intensive sectors, while in labor-intensive sectors, this effectiveness is shaped by cost and liquidity factors. In technology/information-intensive sectors, growth-oriented factors were observed to enhance the effectiveness of the channel.