Türkiye’de Güneş Paneli Atıklarının Çevresel Etki ve Ekonomik Analizi

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, which have become the most competitive technology by meeting clean energy and climate policy targets, are thought to create a significant waste potential at the end of their lifetime after approximately 25-30 years. According to the estimates of IRENA (International Renewable Agency), it is estimated that 1.7-8 million tonnes of end-of-life PV panels will be added to the waste stream by the end of 2030 and 50-60 million tonnes by 2050 on a global scale. With the proper management of end-of-life PV panel wastes, environmental negativities will be eliminated and raw material savings and economic benefits can be achieved by recovering critical minerals in the structure of PV panels. In this study, “early loss” and “regular loss” scenarios were modelled using weibull function based on the estimated power data for the years 2024-2035-2053 in order to reveal the PV waste potential in Türkiye. According to the results of the study; PV panel waste between 1 million 605 thousand 835 tonnes and 2 million 499 thousand 928 tonnes is expected in Türkiye for 2053. If these wastes are not managed properly, they will pose a great environmental threat for Türkiye. In this study, the environmental impact and economic analysis of the recycling of the PV panel waste stream modeled for Türkiye with the “Full Recovery End-of-Life Photovoltaic Project (FRELP)” method was carried out. . Cost-benefit analyses were performed for the reference years and the net benefit value was determined. In the study, it was observed that the net benefit value increased in parallel with the increase in the amount of waste. Considering the large PV waste flow estimated for Türkiye, it is important to carry out life cycle analysis studies on PV waste management, to encourage investors by conducting more studies on the profitability of recycling, and to support industrial scale initiatives with policies.