Türkiye'de İleri Yaş Ölümlülük Modellemesi

Abstract

The increase in life expectancy and the decrease in the fertility rate cause the proportion of the elderly population to increase day by day throughout the world. The increase in the elderly population in society causes many socio-economic problems. The decrease in the working population and the increase in the number of people in need of care and retired people negatively affect the social security system, production, pension and life insurance companies. This situation requires adjustments in economic and social policies. Therefore, examining and modeling the older age population is important. In this study, old age mortality in Türkiye will be modeled with the most appropriate and useful model among the Gompertz, Makeham Gompertz, Perks, Weibull, Beards and Kannisto mortality models. With the most appropriate method, death rates will be smoothing between the ages of 80-98, extended from the age of 98 to 120 years and life tables will be calculated for the years 2009-2022 with the new calculated death rates. With the help of the Lee Carter method, death rates will be estimated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 ve 2050 and life expectancy will be calculated with these estimates.