Türkiye'de Sosyal Güvenlik Açıkları, Finansman Sorunları ve Çözüm Önerileri

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to analyze the current financial structure of the social security system in Türkiye and to investigate the reasons for the persistence of social security deficits. The study also aims to evaluate the steps that can be taken to ensure fiscal balance in the social security system in the face of the decrease in the average retirement age and the increase in the number of retirees with the regulation implemented in 2023. In this context, the first section of the study presents general information on social security as well as the theoretical framework on the rationale for the existence of social security systems and the method of financing. The second section focuses on the trends of all social security income and expenditure items in the 2009-2023 period in order to observe the financial structure of the social security system in Türkiye in the post-reform period. In the third section, after a detailed discussion of the causes of social security deficits in Türkiye, the factors affecting the ratio of social security revenues to expenditures are analyzed through correlation, multiple linear regression and ridge regression analyses. In the analysis, premium income, pension expenditures, health expenditures, number of insured, number of pensioners, employment rate, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and unregistered employment rate variables are used. According to the results of Ridge Regression Analysis, in addition to premium income, pensions and health expenditures, the number of insured, labor force participation rate and unemployment rate have an impact on the income-expenditure coverage ratio. In the conclusion section, a general evaluation of the findings of the thesis is made and recommendations are made on policies that can be implemented to ensure social security revenue-expenditure balance.