Investigating the Impact of Sociodemographic Dynamics on Divorce Risk in Turkey

Abstract

The family, as an institution, profoundly influences the values and behaviors of individuals and serves as a channel for transferring these values across generations. Marriage is commonly the initiation of family life and is regarded as a pivotal institution within society. Conversely, divorce represents the legal dissolution of this social institution. In the face of modern values and globalization, traditional norms are being replaced, leading to alterations in family structure and an increase in divorce rates. This thesis examines the complex relationship between sociodemographic characteristics, traditional values and divorce risk in Turkey. Utilizing data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which focuses on women aged 15-49, the study employs logistic regression models to analyze the risk of divorce and multiple correspondence analysis to explore the interplay between marital status and related characteristics. The findings reveal that a woman’s employment during marriage significantly increases the risk of divorce. An increase in the age at marriage correlates with higher divorce rates, yet younger age at marriage is associated with a greater risk of divorce when controlling for other variables. Higher education levels of women are linked to increased divorce risk, though not conclusively. Early years of marriage are more susceptible to divorce, while the presence of children offers a protective effect. Forced marriages and marriages without a bride price or religious ceremony are more prone to dissolution. Extended family structure and marriages between relatives are associated with lower divorce probability. Ethnic background and place of residence also play a significant role, with Kurdish individuals and those from rural areas facing lower divorce risks. This thesis highlights the complex relationship between the decline in traditional values and rising divorce rates, suggesting that the erosion of traditionalism is not inherently negative for families but reflects a societal shift towards individual autonomy and personal fulfillment. Despite the global stagnation in divorce rates, there x has been an increase in Turkey, possibly due to the unique demographic transition phase where the strengthening of women's rights in society and gender equality is not yet reflected in family relationships. The study challenges the notion that traditional values inherently safeguard marital stability in Turkey, proposing that they may instead enforce continuity in unsatisfactory marriages. The evolution of traditional values, aligned with modernization and enhanced status for women, may lead to greater marital satisfaction and potentially lower divorce rates in the future. In sum, this thesis contributes to the understanding of marital dynamics in Turkey by highlighting the multidimensional effects of sociodemographic factors and traditional values on divorce risk. It calls for a subtle interpretation of the role traditional values play in marital stability and satisfaction, taking into account the broader socio-economic and cultural transformations underway.