The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Housing Market

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze the impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish housing market for the period 2009 and 2019. In order to evaluate how the housing market was affected, Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) micro-level data retrieved from TurkStat was used. In addition to the analysis using rents and perceived rents, an index variable called Housing Quality Index (HQI) was defined and included in the analysis. Türkiye's mass refugee influx is heterogeneous across regions, and this rare situation allows for a quasi-experimental research design. The difference-in-differences (DiD) strategy was followed with a number of modifications. Then, the potential endogeneity problem was discussed, and an instrumental variable was introduced. The analysis indicates that rents increased by 1.19% for a 1% increase in the migrantto-native ratio in the short run while the increase in perceived rents is 1.43% in the short run. The impact on rents and perceived rents are calculated as 0.66% and 0.89% in the long run, leading us to believe the impact slowly diminishes in the long run. The analysis was repeated on different types of housing units to understand if different cohorts were affected differently by the migration.High-quality housing units were affected more by immigration in the short run while low-quality houses were affected more in the long run. The impact on the natives with low education is significant in both the short run and the long run. In the short run, the development level of the region is found to be a significant determinant of the impact of migration on the housing market. Less developed regions are affected more by the migration. This effect disappears in the long run. Additionally, an analysis using the Housing Quality Index showed there was no decrease in the housing quality of the natives due to migration.