Derekuşunun (Cinclus cinclus) Dağılım Dinamiklerinin Filocoğrafya ve Ekolojik Niş Modeli ile Araştırılması

Abstract

The living organisms give various biological responses to global climate change. The periods between the Last Glacial and the Interglacial have dramatic effect on the species distribution, especially in the Palearctic Region. When the researchers examined the situation from this point of view, in their work, they showed that global warming will have effects on the species distribution. The supreme impact of global climate change is accepted as the species distribution, and that's why the situation of global warming needs to be examined for the various biological species.

In this thesis, the white-throated dipper (Cinclus cinclus) is taken as a model organism. As known, white-throated dippers have a wide distribution in the Palearctic Region, and they depend on the streams. The distribution of the species was estimated by ecological niche modeling for past periods (the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid- Holocene) and Bayesian-based demographics with previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences (control region, ND2, Cyt-b gene regions) analyzed to strengthen historical inferences. It is aimed to identify historical refugial areas by performing analyzes and combining the results. Simultaneously, the areas where the species may disperse according to possible future carbon emission scenarios were also estimated by ecological niche modeling.

The results indicated that demographic analyzes and ecological niche model predictions were consistent. There was an increase in effective population size after the Last Glacial Maximum. And, a notable allopatric Caucasian refugial area was found during the last Interglacial period. This study shows evidence of multiple refugia during climatic oscillations that occurred in different periods during the Pleistocene epoch. Based on the future climate scenarios, there has not been a dramatic shrinkage due to the wide distribution of the species (white-throated dipper), but the narrower area is the case.

Keywords: Biogeography, Animal geography, Species distribution, Historical biogeography, Phylogeography, Climate change, White-Throated dipper, Cinclus cinclus.