| dc.contributor.advisor | Öztürk, Selcen | |
| dc.contributor.author | Çakmak, İsmail | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2019-03-04T08:51:22Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2018-12-21 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | ÇAKMAK, İsmail. The Analysis of 2008 Global Economic Crisis: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Ph. D. Dissertation, Ankara, 2019 | tr_TR |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11655/6060 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study aims to analyze the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on Turkish manufacturing industry. Economic impacts of crisis have long been investigated; however, this study differentiates by using a new perspective on the issue. Micro-econometric differences in differences method is used in junction with forecasting method. In the study, importance of the manufacturing industry is revealed for Turkish economy by analyzing all sectors operating in the economy. This study also aims to predict what would have happened in the Turkish economy, if the 2008 crisis did not exist and whether the manufacturing industry showed early signals or not. Results indicate that profit levels of Turkish manufacturing sector are affected from the 2008 global economic crisis at two digit sub-sectors level and showed early signals for the crisis. Further, it was found that profit values of manufacturing sector bounced back and even actual profits exceeded the estimated profits in the later years. | tr_TR |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | ACCEPTANCE AND APPROVAL i
DECLARATION ii
YAYIMLAMA VE FİKRİ MÜLKİYET HAKLARI BEYANI iii
ETİK BEYAN iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v
ABSTRACT vi
ÖZET vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS viii
LIST OF ABBREVATIONS x
LIST OF TABLES xi
LIST OF FIGURES xii
INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER I : THE DEFINITION OF THE CRISIS CONCEPT AND 2008 CRISIS 5
1.1. DEFINITION OF THE CRISIS 5
1.2. THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 5
1.3. CRISIS MODELS 10
1.3.1. First Generation Crisis Models 11
1.3.2. Second Generation Crisis Models 12
1.3.3. Third Generation Crisis Models 13
1.4. 2008 ECONOMIC CRISIS 14
1.4.1. Development of the 2008 Crisis 14
1.4.2. The measures against 2008 crisis 21
1.4.3. The Consequences of the 2008 Crisis 24
CHAPTER II : RELATED LITERATURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 28
2.1. RELATED LITERATURE 28
2.2. TURKISH MANUFACTURING SECTOR 39
CHAPTER III : DATA, METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS 48
3.1. DATA 48
3.2. METHODOLOGY 55
3.2.1. Forecasting Analysis 55
3.2.1.1. Fixed Effects Model 57
3.2.1.2. Random Effects Model 58
3.2.2 Difference in Difference Estimation (DID) 60
3.3. RESULTS 62
3.3.1. Sectoral Results of the Turkish Economy 62
3.3.2. Manufacturing Industry Analysis Results 67
3.3.2.1. Random Effect Analysis Results 68
3.3.2.2 Forecasting Analysis Results 69
3.3.2.3. Differences in Difference Estimation Results 78
CHAPTER IV : DISCUSSION 84
CONCLUSION 103
REFERENCES 106
Appendix 1. Originality Report …………………………………………………….131
Appendix 2. Ethics Board Waiver Form ………………………………………….132 | tr_TR |
| dc.language.iso | en | tr_en |
| dc.publisher | Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü | tr_TR |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess | tr_TR |
| dc.subject | Turkish economy | en |
| dc.subject | 2008 crisis | en |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | en |
| dc.subject | Manufacturing sector | en |
| dc.subject | Differences in differences | en |
| dc.title | The Analysis of 2008 Global Economic Crisis : The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Industry | tr_TR |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis | tr_TR |
| dc.description.ozet | Bu çalışmanın amacı 2008 küresel ekonomik krizinin Türk imalat sanayine olan etkilerini analiz etmektir. Krizlerin ekonomik etkileri uzun zamandır incelense de bu çalışma konuya yeni bir bakış açısı getirerek farklılaşmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada mikro ekonometrik farkların farkları (differences in differences) yöntemi ile tahmin analizi (forecasting analysis) beraber kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada imalat sanayinin Türkiye ekonomisi için önemi, Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren tüm sektörler analiz edilerek ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışma ayrıca 2008 küresel ekonomik kriz olmasaydı Türkiye ekonomisinin ve imalat sanayinin nasıl ilerlediğini ve imalat sanayinin krizin öncül sinyallerini gösterip göstermediğini tahmin etmeyi hedeflemiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda Türkiye imalat sanayinin iki basamak alt sektör boyutundaki kar değerlerinin 2008 küresel ekonomik krizden etkilendiği ve imalat sanayinin krizin öncül sinyallerini gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Buna ek olarak sonraki yıllarda imalat sanayi kar değerlerinin kriz öncesi seviyeye geldiği hatta gerçek kar değerlerinin hesaplanan kar değerlerini de geçtiği tespit edilmiştir. | tr_TR |
| dc.contributor.department | İktisat | tr_TR |
| dc.contributor.authorID | 34262 | tr_TR |
| dc.embargo.terms | 2 yil | tr_TR |
| dc.embargo.lift | 2021-03-05T08:51:22Z | |
