Türkiye’de İşsizlik Sigortası Fonu Gelir ve Giderlerinin Stokastik Modellenmesi

Abstract

Unemployment is one of the main problem areas of many developed and developing countries. Results of unemployment can affect both the individual and the social peace and economy. Active and passive employment policies can be applied to solve the unemployment problem. One of the most important social security policy option is the unemployment insurance, the most crucial one among the passive employment policies, which aims to minimize the negative effects of unemployment.

In this study, the conditions and applications of unemployment insurance which has been implemented as a requirement of being a social state since 2000 in Turkey are examined and the current situation in Turkey is discussed. Besides providing unemployment benefits as fulfilling its main duty, the Unemployment Insurance Fund also finances employment increasing policies by allocating substantial amounts of funds for these policies in recent years. In the study, estimations are made regarding the development of the fund's cash flow balance in the long term under current practices and different policy options.

The Fund will continue to have revenue-expenditure surplus if the employment incentives will be terminated in its normal legislative deadline and no additional expenditure programs will be defined due to the results of the study. If it is continued to finance the minimum wage support from the Fund, it is seen that the fiscal sustainability of Fund will not be ensured.