Bor Mineralinin Kritikliğinin Dinamik Değerlendirilmesi
Özet
Although natural resources management is at the forefront of environmental problems, it is seen as a study area where less studies are conducted than other subjects and current studies are insufficient to direct the management. Sustainability of natural resources has many important economic, social, political, technological and environmental dimensions, including environmental pollution, market dynamics, supply-demand balance, mining stock, national resource management policies, technology trends, mineral exploration and exploration. The accumulation of available knowledge, the inadequacy of simulation models and tools, and the inability to integrate all these dimensions correctly due to the need for integration make it difficult to predict the future state of natural resources.
Boron mineral sustainability is a controversial mineral like many other natural sources. At the base of this discussion; different estimates on the adequacy of reserves made by different institutions, changing market conditions and R & D studies have made it more uncertain how the consumption curve will evolve due to the creation of new areas for boron minerals.
It is important to understand the dynamics of the boron market in order to ensure effective use of the boron reserves and maximum benefit. Determining which of the parameters affecting this dynamic is more important can facilitate the solution of this otherwise complicated problem. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop a model that will best describe the sub-systems of the boron mineral and mining industry that constitute the whole system that affect the sustainability of the boron mineral and describe the system in the best way.
Within the scope of this thesis, it has been investigated how boron mineral, which is a strategic resource for our country, can change the usage amounts of boron-containing products in the world scale in the future and how long the boron reserves can be used to meet community needs. For this purpose, a boron mineral sustainability projection model was developed by using the population, marketing efficiency, global gross national product, diffusion of boron on the market dynamics based system dynamics approach and the change in the price of boron mineral with time and the depletion time of the boron reservoir were calculated. The projection model, which was constructed over a period of 100 years, was run in 3 different diffusion speed scenarios. Reserves were quantitatively estimated to be consumed in 2061 in the fast diffusion scenario and in 2051 in the very fast diffusion scenario, while reservoirs in the slow diffusion scenario showed a decrease of about 93% in the unused but unknown reserves over a 100 year period. STELLA was used as the system dynamics software for model development.
Whether a source is "critical" is based on the economic risk and and supply risk in a region. By integrating dynamics into the criticality study, it is examined how the change of the most important parameters affecting the sustainability of the borrowing will affect the depletion time.
Simulation results show that the reserve does not run out in the slow diffusion scenario of the boron mineral for the next 100 years projection and the annual consumption is increased from 1,755 kilotons of B2O3 in 2017 to 12,192 kilotons of B2O3 in 2117 and 458,998 kilotons of B2O3 in 2117. In the scenario of slow diffusion, the price of boron will be 1,620 dollars / ton B2O3 in 2017, while boron prices will decrease by one third in the distant future. This is because the known reserves are in a rising trend until 2078 and effective that it is able to meet consumption. Scenario 2, which is a scenario of fast diffusion scenario, shows that the reserves will be consumed in 2061 and the prices will rise to 17,432 dollars / ton B2O3 level and then decrease trend after this point. It has been observed that when appropriate market conditions occur, it shifts from non-critical element position to high criticality class.
