A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s Policy Towards the Taiwan Issue During the Xi Jinping Era

Abstract

The complex relations between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan have undergone substantial transformations since the Chinese Civil War. Especially, China has become a crucial player in the global arena, particularly as a rising power in Asia under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who has been president of the People’s Republic of China, since 2012. For this reason, their bilateral ties with Taiwan have garnered broader attention in international relations. A closer analysis of Xi’s policies reveals that China, by prioritizing its national interests, has adopted a more power-centric approach, shaped by both internal factors and Chinese foreign policy objectives. Therefore, understanding China’s approach toward Taiwan requires not only an examination of the transformation of the international system but also an exploration of the domestic influences and leadership dynamics that guide Chinese policies. This thesis attempt to explain relations between China and Taiwan during the Xi Jinping era through the lens of neoclassical realism. The primary research question of this thesis is to identify the key factors that shaped China’s Taiwan policy under Xi Jinping. This question is approached within the framework of neoclassical realism. Neoclassical realism provides a comprehensive framework for understanding state behaviour and policy formulation by integrating both dynamics of the international system and domestic factors. The thesis primarily examines how the leader’s image, the Chinese Communist Party’s strategies, state-society relations, and strategic culture shaped China’s Taiwan policy during the Xi Jinping era. This thesis is based on the argument that not only systemic changes but also China’s domestic dynamics have an impact on the Taiwan issue. This thesis concludes that the Taiwan policies implemented during the Xi Jinping era have been primarily shaped by the leader’s image and the strategies of the Chinese Communist Party. In addition to this, the indirect influence of China’s strategic culture on Taiwan policies has also been observed.