HALKA AÇIK ALTIN MADENİ ŞİRKETLERİ HİSSE DEĞERİ İLE BIST 100 ENDEKSİ VE ALTIN FİYATI İLİŞKİSİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ
Özet
Today, many companies are listed on the stock exchange and the shares of these companies change hands between investors. Since this exchange process takes place digitally, it is quite fast and is widely accepted by the masses due to the ease of transactions. Although the number of investors in our country and the prevalence among the public is low compared to western countries, the interest in companies listed on the stock exchange has been increasing with a rising trend in recent times. The shares of these companies are traded on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) in Turkey. Obviously, the stock prices of listed companies fluctuate over time, but this movement is expected to be related to many issues such as the industry in which the companies are located, the overall structure of the stock market, and the values of the products they sell. Mining is one of the industries in which BIST 100 listed companies are categorized. Among these companies, those related to gold mining constitute a large portion of the relevant industry in terms of value. These companies are Koza Altın İşletmeleri A.Ş. and Koza Anadolu Metal Madencilik İşletmeleri A.Ş. and their symbols in the BIST 100 are KOZAL and KOZAA, respectively. The mining industry is based on the production of non-renewable natural resources. Therefore, mining stocks can be expected to be affected by the prices of these natural resources. However, the reasons for the price movements of listed companies can often be the result of a complex structure. For example, the company's future prospects, environmental and social conditions, and changes in the value of other stocks, which are difficult or impossible to predict in advance. For this reason, the modeling of the relationship between a company's share price and other variables is mostly based on those that can be measured. Today, the relationship between the price movement of the traded commodity and the change in the stock market index and the share values of mining companies is well known. However, there has been no recent study on whether this relationship is valid in Turkey. Although there are some past studies, it is not known whether the relationships in these studies are valid today. For this reason, this study examines the relationship between KOZAL, KOZAA, BIST100 index and Gold prices. The data between 2014 and 2023 are taken into account in the analysis. In order to determine whether the data have a trending structure, KOZAL, KOZAA, Gold prices and BIST 100 index were analyzed for annual trends. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and Phillips-Perron Test, which are Unit Root Tests, were used to check the stationarity of prices. In line with the results obtained, Johansen Cointegration Test, Engle-Granger Cointegration Test and Fully Modified Least Squares Method were used to investigate whether there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. As a result, the relationship between KOZAL and KOZAA share prices, BIST 100 index and gold prices is evaluated.
