Fertility Preferences and their Correlates: The Role of the Actual Number of Children (1993-2018)

Abstract

There have been notable changes in Türkiye’s fertility level since the proclamation of the Republic. From 5.6 children in 1923, the total fertility rate (TFR) significantly increased under pronatalist policies in mid-1950s, reaching 6-7 children. From the mid-1950s onwards, as a result of antinatalist policies, the TFR began to decline from the mid-1950s. By the 1980s, the TFR had declined to 4.3, and the downward trend continued, reaching a level below the replacement level by 2010. Disparities in the TFR by regional and socio-economic characteristics, which have persisted from the very beginning, are already in place. While some subpopulations have completed the fertility transition, others are still in the middle or late stages. Recognizing that fertility preferences affect future behavior and that fertility intention is a reliable indicator of actual behavior when measured appropriately (Westoff, 1990; Kodzi et al., 2010), the "proportion of women who do not want another child" was evaluated as an indicator of fertility preference. Data from the 1993 and 2018 Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) were used to examine changes within the population. The study used logistic regression analysis to determine the relationship between selected variables and fertility intentions. Seperate models were constructed according to the number of living children, based on the fact that there are different motivations for fertility preferences depending on the number of children. The findings show that the proportion of women who want no more children decreased from 73% in 1993 to 65% in 2018. Analysis showed that the determinants of the fertility intentions vary according to the the number of children women have.