How Fertility-Related Trajectories of Syrian Refugee Women in Turkey Vary Over Time? Testing the Socialization, Adaptation, Disruption and Selection Hypotheses

Abstract

Millions of Syrians were compelled to seek safety in neighboring countries as the Syrian Civil War broke out in 2011, resulting in extensive violence and displacement. Among these countries, Turkey emerged as a primary destination due to its geographical proximity and relative stability, becoming home to a substantial number of Syrian refugees. As the Turkish population is now coexisting with a significant number of Syrian refugees, it is crucial to anticipate and implement necessary precautions, as their fertility patterns directly influence the country's demographic landscape. This thesis provides a comprehensive understanding of how conflict-induced migration affects women's reproductive behaviors with an emphasis on the post-migration period. Specifically, it focuses on the fertility-related trajectories of Syrian refugee women and examines the change in the post-migration period in Turkey. Thus, the thesis aims to investigate the relationship between conflict, migration and fertility; to compare fertility patterns and reproductive behaviors in pre- and post-migration periods; and to test the four major theories of immigrant fertility: socialization, adaptation, disruption and selection. The study primarily uses data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey Syrian Migrant Sample (2018 TDHS-S). Descriptive analyses and multivariate regression analyses are employed to assess the various risk factors on the reproductive events of Syrian women. Ana bulgular, göç sonrası Suriyeli kadınlar arasında üreme ve doğurganlık davranışlarında önemli değişiklikler olduğunu ortaya koymakta ve göç ile çatışmanın olası etkilerine işaret etmektedir. The results indicate that while Syrian women preserve distinct practices from the pre-migration environment, they also adjust some of their reproductive behaviors to align with Turkish women indicating the presence of both socialization and adaptation hypotheses. The disruption hypothesis is also evident as Syrian refugees exhibit a pattern of delayed childbearing followed by compensatory effects.