Proje Planlama ve Plan Güncelleme Süreçlerinde Matematiksel Modelleme Tabanlı Dijital İkiz Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Digital twin technology provides significant advantages in production, design, operation and maintenance processes by allowing creation of a digital copy of a physical system, and monitoring and analyzing this copy in real time. For example, by using the digital twin of a factory, a production process can be optimized, faults can be detected in advance, and the need for maintenance can be determined. In addition, by creating a digital twin of a building or transportation vehicles, energy consumption can be reduced as well as security issues can be improved. In order to create a digital twin of a product, it is necessary to collect detailed data about the product first. This data is obtained using sensors, cameras, scanning devices or other technologies and includes the physical characteristics of the system, its performance, operating conditions and other information. Then, using this data, a digital copy of the system is created. This digital copy is created in different ways, such as a 3D model, a software application, or a virtual reality environment, and is designed to include the physical properties, performance, and other information of the product. Finally, the digital copy is monitored in real time and its status is analyzed. This process can be used to monitor system performance and operating conditions, detect malfunctions, and identify maintenance needs, helping to make decisions about product development and optimization. With the development of technology, it has become a necessity for project processes to become faster and more efficient. Traditional project planning methods such as the Gantt Chart and the Critical Path Method are insufficient to adapt to today's rapid project processes and changes. Therefore, within the scope of this thesis, it is aimed to design a model that can adapt to possible changes in the project process in a faster and more flexible way by using the digital twin technology in project planning and keeping the plan up-to-date. In particular, the fact that the studies on digital twins in the literature are generally related to physical products or structures, and the absence of a similar study on project planning processes provided motivation in the thesis study. Within the scope of this thesis, it is aimed to increase efficiency and reduce costs in project processes by creating a conceptual model with a mathematical modeling-based digital twin approach in project planning and plan-update processes. This approach includes the use of data analyses and advanced analytical techniques in the project planning processes, giving project managers the opportunity to make more effective decisions. In this direction, a conceptual model aimed at automating the project planning and updating processes was created and a solution was selected within the framework of the relevant conceptual model, and the selected solution was applied to a project system consisting of 15 work packages. The proposed conceptual model is shown by the Business Process Flow Diagram and it starts with the modeling of the data preparation step, which is one of the most important steps in the digital twin technology. The model, which utilize; preparation of personnel, personnel competencies, personnel performances, job step name list, job step unit numbers, job step durations and job step competencies data, provides information to the user by working forward and backward with real-time data flow. For this purpose, the model allows real-time data flow for the planning of the project and keeps it up-to-date by using a data analyses method or a mathematical model. An implementation is done for a project by using a part of the designed conceptual model. Within the scope of the application, by using a mathematical model; work packages in the project are planned, for each job personnel from a personnel pool are assigned with appropriate competences and performances, project completion time is determined, project plan is updated as a result of a change that may occur in the later stages of the project, performance of the personnel is determined when the expected completion time of the project is given and relevant personnel assignments are made, if necessary. Using the methodology, it has been seen that the study gives efficient and accurate results. The results obtained provide important opportunities for mathematical model-based digital twin approach in project planning and plan-update processes and guide for future studies.