Türkiye İçin %100 Yenilenebilir Enerji Sisteminin Tekno-Ekonomik Analizi

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced to zero by 2050 in order to stop global climate change. Energy system has to transform into a net zero emission one since currently it consumes large amount of fossil fuels and is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. However, Turkey does not have any long-term climate or energy policy for planning and execution of its energy transition. In addition to the use of clean energy resources, concepts such as smart energy systems and sector coupling offer the most cost-effective solution for energy transition. In this study, by the use of EnergyPLAN software and smart energy systems approach; two scenarios were applied to Turkey’s energy system including electricity, transportation, heating&cooling and industry sectors so that all energy related emissions will be eliminated. In the first scenario, nuclear power is utilized along with renewable energy sources, while in the second scenario, an energy system was planned using 100% renewable energy. Technology options were added step by step to 2050 reference energy system and the effects of each option was analysed. Simulations were performed at hourly resolution and energy demand and production were balanced at every hour throughout the year. In both scenarios, zero-emission energy iv systems rely heavily on renewable electricity. As the installed power of solar and wind power plants increases, flexibility in the electricity grid is provided by loads such as heat pumps and electrolysers, instead of generation plants. In both scenarios, the cost of zero emission energy systems is only 4.5% higher than reference energy system. In the transition to net zero emission energy systems, Nuclear + Renewable scenario causes lower level of carbon emissions, but the 100% renewable scenario was more advantageous in annual energy system costs.