ASSESSMENT OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM BIOFUEL PRODUCTION BY LIFE CYCLE APPROACH BİYOYAKIT ÜRETİM AŞAMASINDA AÇIĞA ÇIKAN SERA GAZI EMİSYONLARININ YAŞAM DÖNGÜSÜ YAKLAŞIMI İLE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ GİZEM ERSOY ASSOC. PROF. DR. MERİH AYDINALP KÖKSAL Supervisor Submitted to Graduate School of Science and Engineering of Hacettepe University as a Partial Fulfillment to the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Master of Science in Environmental Engineering 2023 i ABSTRACT ASSESSMENT OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM BIOFUEL PRODUCTION BY LIFE CYCLE APPROACH Gizem Ersoy Master of Science, Department of Environmental Engineering Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merih AYDINALP KÖKSAL January 2023, 95 pages The decreasing stocks of petroleum-based fuels, increasing energy security problems, and the problems related to climate change and air pollution problems encourage the growing interest in biofuels. Biofuels are among low-carbon alternatives for road transport, as they have a much better CO2 emission performance and lesser air pollution impacts than traditional fossil transport fuels. However, it is significant to examine whether the GHG emissions from biofuels' lifecycle are lower than those from fossil fuels. In addition, biofuel production from crops should not compete with food production and should be economically and environmentally sustainable. According to Turkey’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, in 2020, the transport sector's share in total GHG emissions was 15.4%, corresponding to 80.7 million tons of CO2eq. Road transportation accounts for 94.9% of the country's transport sector's GHG emissions. In addition, Turkey’s domestic oil source is also limited, making her dependent on imported liquid fuels. Turkey has recently created a road map for 2053, which includes essential principles and important actions to decrease GHG emissions and climate change. In addition, the ii transposition and implementation of the current and future EU Directives on climate change are critical for Turkey to implement its road map for 2053. For these reasons, Turkey's biofuel potential and emission effects were analyzed in this study. As a method, BioGrace Calculation Tool is used to calculate the life cycle GHG emission reduction potentials of biodiesel from rapeseed and waste oil and bioethanol from sugar beet and corn. According to the results of each biofuel production pathway's life cycle GHG emissions, biodiesel production from waste oil has the lowest life cycle GHG emission, 21.9 g CO2eq/MJ. Bioethanol production from corn (44.9 g CO2eq/MJ) and sugar beet (46.1 g CO2eq/MJ) follows biodiesel from waste oil. Biodiesel from rapeseed has the highest life cycle GHG emission, which is 53.2 g CO2eq/MJ. Secondly, various biodiesel and bioethanol blending scenarios were implemented to estimate the GHG emissions of biofuel-blended passenger cars. This is accomplished by assuming a 5% annual rise in the proportion of biofuel- blended passenger cars will reach up to 50% of all non-blended passenger cars in 2030, starting from 2020, which is selected as the base year. Finally, crop demand analyses were conducted for rapeseed, sugar beet, and corn cultivation area to estimate Turkey’s capacity to meet biodiesel and bioethanol demands in 2030 according to various biofuel blending rates. According to projection results, blending the biofuels at 0.5% and 2% can easily meet the demand for biodiesel production from rapeseed. Consequently, bioethanol production from sugar beet and corn can be easily achieved with all blending rates by the end of 2030. However, sugar beet and corn production for food demand should also be considered since biofuel production should not compete with food production. Keywords: Transport Sector, Greenhouse Gas Emission, Biodiesel, Bioethanol, BioGrace, Life Cycle Assessment iii ÖZET BİYOYAKIT ÜRETİM AŞAMASINDA AÇIĞA ÇIKAN SERA GAZI EMİSYONLARININ YAŞAM DÖNGÜSÜ YAKLAŞIMI İLE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ Gizem Ersoy Yüksek Lisans, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümü Tez Danışmanı: Doç. Dr. Merih AYDINALP KÖKSAL Ocak 2023, 95 sayfa Petrol bazlı yakıt stoklarının azalması, artan enerji güvenliği sorunları, iklim değişikliğine bağlı sorunlar ve hava kirliliği sorunları biyoyakıtlara olan ilginin artmasına neden olmuştur. Biyoyakıtlar, geleneksel fosil kaynaklı ulaşım yakıtlarından çok daha düşük CO2 emisyon performansına ve daha az hava kirliliği etkilerine sahip olduklarından, karayolu taşımacılığı için düşük karbonlu alternatifler arasında yer almaktadır. Ancak, biyoyakıtların yaşam döngüleri boyunca açığa çıkan sera gazı emisyonlarının fosil yakıtlarınkinden daha düşük olup olmadığının araştırılması önemlidir. Bunun yanında, tarımsal kaynaklı biyoyakıt üretimi, gıda üretimi ile rekabet etmemeli ve ekonomik ve çevresel olarak sürdürülebilir olmalıdır. Türkiye Ulusal Sera Gazı Envanteri ‘ne göre 2020 yılında ulaştırma sektörünün toplam sera gazı emisyonlarındaki payı %15,4; 80,7 milyon ton CO2 eşdeğeridir ve karayolu taşımacılığı da sektörün sera gazı emisyonlarının %94,9'unu oluşturmaktadır. Ayrıca, Türkiye'nin yerli petrol kaynağının da sınırlı olması, onu ithal sıvı yakıtlara bağımlı kılmaktadır. Türkiye yakın zamanda 2053 yılı için, sera gazı emisyonlarını ve iklim değişikliğini azaltmak için temel ilkeleri ve önemli eylemleri iv içeren bir yol haritası oluşturmuştur. Ayrıca, iklim değişikliğine ilişkin mevcut ve gelecekteki AB Direktiflerinin iç hukuka aktarılması ve uygulanması, Türkiye'nin 2053 yol haritasını uygulaması açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu nedenlerden dolayı bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin biyoyakıt potansiyeli ve emisyon etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Yöntem olarak BioGrace Hesaplama Aracı kullanılarak, kanola ve atık yağdan elde edilen biyodizel ile şeker pancarı ve mısırdan elde edilen biyoetanolün yaşam döngüsü sera gazı emisyonlarını azaltma potansiyelleri hesaplanmıştır. Her bir biyoyakıt üretim yolunun yaşam döngüsü sera gazı emisyonlarının sonuçlarına göre, atık yağdan biyodizel üretimi, 21,9 g CO2eşdeğer/MJ ile en düşük yaşam döngüsü sera gazı emisyonuna sahiptir. Mısır (44,9 g CO2eşd/MJ) ve şeker pancarından (46,1 g CO2eşd/MJ) biyoetanol üretimi emisyonları, sırasıyla atık yağdan üretilen biyodizel emisyonunu takip etmektedir. Kanoladan elde edilen biyodizel, 53,2 g CO2eq/MJ ile en yüksek yaşam döngüsü sera gazı emisyonuna sahiptir. Buna ek olarak, bu çalışmada, biyoyakıt karışımlı binek otomobillerin sera gazı emisyonlarını tahmin etmek için çeşitli biyodizel ve biyoetanol harmanlama senaryoları uygulanmıştır. Hesaplamalar referans yıl olarak seçilen 2020'den başlayarak, biyoyakıt karışımlı binek otomobillerin oranında yıllık %5'lik bir artışın yapılarak, 2030'da tüm harmanlanmamış binek otomobillerin %50'sine ulaşacağı varsayılarak yapılmıştır. Son olarak, çeşitli biyoyakıt harmanlama oranlarına göre Türkiye'nin 2030 yılında biyodizel ve biyoetanol taleplerini karşılama kapasitesini tahmin etmek için kanola, şeker pancarı ve mısır ekim alanları için ürün talep analizleri yapılmıştır. Projeksiyon sonuçlarına göre %0,5 ve %2 oranındaki biyoyakıtların harmanlanması kanoladan biyodizel üretimi talebini rahatlıkla karşılayabilecektir. Buna ek olarak, şeker pancarı ve mısırdan biyoetanol üretimi, 2030 yılı sonuna kadar tüm harmanlama oranlarıyla kolaylıkla sağlanabilir. Ancak biyoyakıt üretiminin gıda üretimi ile rekabet etmemesi gerektiğinden, gıda talebine yönelik şeker pancarı ve mısır üretimi de dikkate alınmalıdır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ulaşım Sektörü, Sera Gazı Emisyonu, Biyodizel, Biyoetanol, BioGrace, Yaşam Döngüsü Değerlendirmesi v ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merih AYDINALP KÖKSAL, for her invaluable support, patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and extensive knowledge throughout the research and writing of this thesis. Her guidance was instrumental in the successful completion of this work. I also extend my sincere appreciation to the faculty members and staff of Hacettepe University's Environmental Engineering Department for their excellent support. I would like to offer a special thank you to my dear father, Erçin ERSOY, who passed away untimely. I am also grateful to my dear mother, Nejla ERSOY, and my dear brother, Erdinç ERSOY, who have always been there for me, providing unwavering support and encouragement through every challenge. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... i ÖZET ...................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................. v TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. ix LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... xi SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................... xiv 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 1.1. Problem Definition ...................................................................................... 3 1.2. Goal and Objective .................................................................................... 4 1.3. Scope of the Study ..................................................................................... 5 1.4. Structure of the Study ................................................................................ 6 2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ..................................................................... 7 2.1. What is Biofuel? ......................................................................................... 7 2.1.1. Biorefinery Technology ........................................................................ 9 2.1.2. Liquid Biofuels ................................................................................... 11 2.2. Biofuel Sector in Turkey ........................................................................... 16 2.2.1. Biodiesel in Turkey ............................................................................ 16 2.2.2. Bioethanol in Turkey .......................................................................... 18 2.3. Energy Crops Used for Biofuel Production or Food ................................. 19 2.4. Legal Situation of The Biofuel Sector in Turkey ....................................... 22 2.5. Scope of EU Biofuels Directives .............................................................. 24 vii 2.6. Closing Remarks ...................................................................................... 25 3. PREVIOUS STUDIES .................................................................................... 27 3.1. Studies on Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Biofuel Generation .................. 27 3.2. Studies Using the BioGrace Tool ............................................................. 29 3.3. Studies on GHG Emission Estimation of Turkish Crops ........................... 30 3.4. Closing Remarks ...................................................................................... 31 4. BIOGRACE-I GHG CALCULATION TOOL VERSION 4D FOR COMPLIANCE 34 4.1. Structure of the Estimation Tool ............................................................... 34 4.2. Closing Remarks ...................................................................................... 36 5. METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES ..................................................... 37 5.1. Data Gathering and Analyses .................................................................. 37 5.2. Data Input to BioGrace Calculation Tool and GHG Emission Calculation 39 5.2.1. Data Used for Biodiesel Production from Rapeseed ......................... 39 5.2.2. Data Used for Biodiesel Production from Waste Oil .......................... 44 5.2.3. Data Used for Bioethanol Production from Sugar Beet ..................... 46 5.2.4. Data Used for Bioethanol Production from Corn ............................... 49 5.3. Developing Biofuel Blending Scenarios ................................................... 51 5.3.1. Biodiesel Blending ............................................................................. 52 5.3.2. Bioethanol Blending ........................................................................... 52 5.3.3. Passenger Car Stock, Fuel Type and Milage .................................... 52 5.4. Closing Remarks ...................................................................................... 53 6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS .................................................................... 55 6.1. Life Cycle GHG Emission Estimation for Biofuel Production .................... 55 6.1.1. Biodiesel Production .......................................................................... 55 6.1.2. Bioethanol Production ....................................................................... 58 viii 6.1.3. Comparison of Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Biofuel Production ...... 61 6.2. Biofuel Consumption Blending Scenarios ................................................ 62 6.2.1. Results of Biodiesel Blending Scenarios ........................................... 62 6.2.2. Results of Bioethanol Blending Scenarios ......................................... 67 6.3. Crop Demand Analysis for Biofuel Production (Turkey’s context) ............ 72 6.3.1. Rapeseed Demand Analysis for Biodiesel Production ....................... 72 6.3.2. Sugar Beet Demand Analysis for Bioethanol Production ................... 74 6.3.3. Corn Demand Analysis for Bioethanol Production ............................. 76 6.4. Policy Analysis ......................................................................................... 78 6.5. Closing Remarks ...................................................................................... 79 7. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................... 82 7.1. Future Studies .......................................................................................... 86 8. REFERENCES .............................................................................................. 88 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. GHG emissions from the transportation sector of Turkey[4] .................... 2 Figure 2. Schematic Biorefinery Technology [9] .................................................... 10 Figure 3. Biodiesel production in integrated biodiesel plants and pure transesterification plants [12] ........................................................... 12 Figure 4. Overview of the bioethanol production process [15] .............................. 14 Figure 5. Total crop and food production indices of 51 developing countries between 2011 and 2016 [24] ................................................................................ 20 Figure 6. Total Biofuel and food production of 51 developing countries [24] ......... 21 Figure 7. The relationship between biofuels and food security [25]....................... 22 Figure 8. Methodology flow chart of the study ....................................................... 37 Figure 9. Production pathway of Biodiesel-Rapeseed in the BioGrace tool [53] ... 40 Figure 10. Production pathway of Biodiesel-Waste oil in the BioGrace tool [53] ... 44 Figure 11. Production pathway of Bioethanol-Sugar beet in the BioGrace tool [53] .............................................................................................................................. 47 Figure 12. Production pathway of Bioethanol-Corn in the BioGrace tool [53] ....... 49 Figure 13. Comparison of Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Biofuel Production ......... 61 Figure 14. Comparison of GHG emission reduction potentials of all rapeseed-based biodiesel blending scenarios (The B0.5 scenario was omitted from the figure because the difference with BAU is insignificant.) ...................... 65 Figure 15. Comparison of GHG emission reduction potential of all waste oil-based biodiesel blending scenarios (The B0.5 blend scenario was omitted from the figure because the difference with BAU is insignificant.) ................ 67 Figure 16. Comparison of GHG emission reduction potential of all sugar beet-based bioethanol blending scenarios .............................................................. 70 Figure 17. Comparison of GHG emission reduction potential of all corn-based bioethanol blending scenarios ............................................................ 72 Figure 18. Required biodiesel production amount from rapeseed by different blending scenarios and the base year (2020) production potential .... 74 x Figure 19. Required bioethanol production amount from sugar beet by different blending scenarios and the base year (2020) production potential .... 76 Figure 20. Required bioethanol production amount from corn by different blending scenarios and the base year (2020) production potential ................... 78 xi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Biomass categories, contents, and origins [7] ........................................... 8 Table 2. Amount of biodiesel delivered in Turkey in 2020 [17] .............................. 17 Table 3. Turkey's oilseed production in 2020 [19] ................................................. 17 Table 4. Bioethanol delivery amount in Turkey in 2020 [17] .................................. 19 Table 5. Sunflower cultivation energy inputs related to one ha for each farm in Tuscany, Italy [41] .................................................................................. 29 Table 6: Previous Studies on life cycle GHG emissions of biofuel generation ...... 32 Table 7: Previous studies using the BioGrace Tool ............................................... 32 Table 8: Previous studies using the BioGrace Tool on GHG emission estimation of Turkish crops .......................................................................................... 33 Table 9. Steps of the life cycle GHG analysis of biofuel production ...................... 35 Table 10. The data set used in calculations .......................................................... 37 Table 11. The data used for the calculation of GHG emissions resulting from the land use change ........................................................................................... 39 Table 12. The data used in the BioGrace tool in the step of the biomass supply chain of life cycle GHG emissions from biodiesel-rapeseed .......................... 40 Table 13. The data used in the step of biorefinery of rapeseed [51] ..................... 41 Table 14. The data used in the step of transport and distribution [51] ................... 43 Table 15. The data used in the BioGrace tool in the step of the biomass supply chain of life cycle GHG emissions from biodiesel-waste oil [51] .................... 44 Table 16. The data used in the step of biorefinery of waste oil [51] ...................... 45 Table 17. The data used in the transportation and distribution step [51] ............... 46 Table 18. The data used in the BioGrace tool in the step of the biomass supply chain of life cycle GHG emissions from ethanol-sugar beet ........................... 47 Table 19. The data used in the step of biorefinery of sugar beet [51] ................... 48 Table 20. The data used in the step of transport and distribution [51] ................... 48 Table 21. The data used in the BioGrace tool in the step of the biomass supply chain of life cycle GHG emissions from ethanol-corn .................................... 50 xii Table 22. The data used in the step of biorefinery of corn [51] ............................. 50 Table 23. The data used in the step of transport and distribution [51] ................... 51 Table 24. Commonly used biofuel blend rates for vehicles ................................... 51 Table 25. The number of passenger cars based on fuel type in 2020 for Turkey [66] .............................................................................................................................. 53 Table 26. 2020 Passenger Cars' total mileage by fuel type [67] ........................... 53 Table 27. Life cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel production from rapeseed ........ 56 Table 28. GHG emission reduction potentials of various blending ratios of biodiesel in comparison to base-year diesel consumption .................................. 57 Table 29. Life cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel production from waste oil ......... 57 Table 30. GHG emission reduction potentials of various blending ratios of biodiesel in comparison to base-year diesel consumption .................................. 58 Table 31. Life cycle GHG emissions of ethanol production from sugar beet ......... 59 Table 32. GHG emission reduction potentials of various blending ratios of bioethanol in comparison to base-year gasoline consumption .............................. 59 Table 33. Life cycle GHG emissions of bioethanol production from corn .............. 60 Table 34. GHG emission reduction potentials of various blending ratios of bioethanol in comparison to base-year gasoline consumption .............................. 61 Table 35. Total, diesel-fueled, and biodiesel blended passenger car stock estimates .............................................................................................................................. 63 Table 36. GHG emissions estimates based on the BAU scenario (Diesel) ........... 64 Table 37. GHG emission reduction potentials of all rapeseed-based biodiesel blending scenarios until 2030 ............................................................... 65 Table 38. GHG emission reduction potentials of all waste oil-based biodiesel blending scenarios until 2030 ............................................................... 66 Table 39. Total, gasoline-fueled, and bioethanol blended passenger car stock estimates .............................................................................................. 68 Table 40. GHG emissions results of BAU scenario (Gasoline) ............................. 69 Table 41. GHG emission reduction potentials of all sugar beet-based bioethanol blending scenarios until 2030 ............................................................... 70 xiii Table 42. GHG emission reduction potentials of all corn-based bioethanol blending scenarios until 2030 ............................................................................. 71 Table 43. Projection of rapeseed cultivation area to meet biodiesel demand based on various biofuel blending rates (reference year is 2020 with 35,000 ha) ............................................................................................................. 73 Table 44. Projection of sugar beet cultivation area to meet bioethanol demand according to various biofuel blending rates (reference year is 2020 with 338,108 ha) .......................................................................................... 75 Table 45. Projection of corn cultivation area to meet bioethanol demand according to various biofuel blending rates (reference year is 2020 with 691,632 ha) ............................................................................................................. 77 Table 46. GHG emission reduction potentials of all biofuel pathways in 2030 based on biofuel blend rates ........................................................................... 81 xiv SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS SYMBOLS C Carbon CH4 Methane CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2eq Carbon dioxide equivalent K2O Potassium m3 Cubic meter N Nitrogen N2O Nitrous oxide P2O5 Phosphorus Pentoxide ABBREVIATIONS BAU Business as usual CHP Combined Heat and Power CONCAWE European Council for Clean Air and Water in Europe COVID-19 Coronavirus disease DDGS Dried Distillers Grains EC European Commission EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority EU European Union EUCAR European Council for Automotive Research and Development FAME Fatty acid methyl esters FFA free fatty acids FQD Fuel Quality Directive g gram GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global Warming Potential ha hectare xv ISO The International Organization for Standardization JEC Joint European Commission JRC Joint Research Center kg Kilogram km kilometre LCA Life Cycle Assessment MJ Mega joule NG Natural Gas NPK nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium RED Renewable Energy Directive TAMRA Tobacco and Alcohol Market Regulatory Authority toe tons of oil equivalent TSE Turkish Standards Institute TURKSTAT Turkish Statistical Institute 1 1. INTRODUCTION Population and economic growth are the main contributors to climate change. The human contribution to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is increasing daily and is now higher than ever. High dependency on fossil fuels is one of the major contributing factors to air pollution and climate change. Yet, they are the primary energy sources for some economic sectors to meet high energy demand. Because of the excessive dependence on fossil fuels, the transport sector is one of the most climate-intensive sectors in the world. Especially road transportation is considered the primary source of GHGs as a part of the total transport emissions. Due to improvements in fuel efficiency, electrification, and the use of biofuels, transportation emissions increased by less than 0.5% in 2019 globally (compared to 1.9% yearly since 2000). Despite this, transportation is still responsible for 24% of direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel combustion. Road vehicles, such as cars, buses, trucks, two-wheelers and three-wheelers – account for approximately three-quarters of CO2 emissions from the transportation sector [1]. Between 2018 and 2019, domestic transportation emissions in the European Union increased by 0.8%. According to preliminary estimates, they dropped by 12.7% in 2020 due to a severe decline in transportation activities during the Covid-19 pandemic [2]. In Turkey, from the beginning of the 2000s, fuel consumption in road transportation has increased dramatically. In 2020, Turkey's overall fuel consumption in road transportation reached 25,284 tons of oil equivalent (toe).[3] Moreover, the increase in road vehicle numbers has reached 66% in the last decade. This rise in vehicle numbers, unfortunately, has caused to increase in the level of GHG (carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone) and air pollutant (carbon monoxide, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide) emissions from the transportations sector, as can be seen in Figure 1[4]. 2 According to Turkey’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, in 2020, the transport sector's share in total GHG emissions was 15.4%, corresponding to 80.7 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq). Road transportation accounts for 94.9% of the country's transport sector's GHG emissions (76.6 million tons of CO2eq). It is followed by domestic aviation (2.7%), pipeline transport (0.4%), and railway (0.4%), respectively [4]. Figure 1 depicts Turkey's historical trends in GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Emissions from the transport sector were 199.2 % higher than in 1990, and the annual emission increase is more than 6.4%. Figure 1. GHG emissions from the transportation sector of Turkey[4] On the other hand, Turkey’s domestic oil source is limited and mostly depends on imported fossil fuels. Turkey’s dependency on external sources such as Russia, Iran, or any other country creates energy security problems resulting from various reasons. Due to these reasons, Turkey needs to invest in alternative fuels to increase energy security and deal with the continuous increase in GHG emissions. Energy insecurity and emissions from the lifecycle of fossil fuels can be reduced by switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Biomass-based low-carbon transport fuels (biofuels) are the primary renewable sources of road transportation. 3 Electric cars and low-carbon fossil fuel (LNG) are also significant alternatives to reducing lifecycle emissions of fossil fuels in road transportation. Biofuels, as mentioned above, are among low-carbon alternatives for road transport, as they have a much better CO2 emission performance and lesser air pollution impacts than traditional fossil transport fuels. The European Union (EU) supports biofuel use in road transportation as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels in its Member States and Candidate Countries such as Turkey. However, the EU has also aimed to mitigate the potential negative impacts of biofuel production, such as its life cycle GHG emissions. 1.1. Problem Definition The decreasing stocks of petroleum-based fuels, increasing energy security problems, the problems related to climate change (including increasing vehicle contributions to GHG emissions in road transportation) and air pollution problems encourage the growing interest in biofuels and other bioliquids from biomasses, which are considered renewable energy alternatives to fossil fuels [5]. Biofuels and other bioliquids are critical in achieving the EU’s 14% use of renewable sources objective in transportation. However, it is significant to examine that GHG emissions from biofuels' lifecycle are lower than those from fossil fuels. In addition, biofuel production should not compete with food production and should be economically and environmentally sustainable. For this purpose, the EU sets out biofuel sustainability standards for all EU-produced or consumed biofuels to ensure that they support sustainability and are produced in an environmental-friendly manner. Turkey has recently created a road map including essential principles and important actions to decrease GHG emissions and climate change mitigation, which sets short- , medium-, and long-term strategic objectives and contributes to the legislation to be drafted on climate in line with the country’s 2053 net zero emission and green 4 development strategies. Transposition and implementation of EU Directives on climate change are critical for Turkey to implement its road map for 2053. Turkey has sought to become a full member of the EU since 1987 by aligning its legal framework with the EU standards. As part of the harmonization process, Turkey is harmonising its regulatory framework in the environmental sector, which includes the harmonisation of renewable energy systems. As a result, the EU has various effects on Turkey's renewable energy strategy, including biomass-based energy production and utilization. To achieve successful harmonization with the EU Climate and Environment Acquis, Turkey should increase biofuel blending, integrate electric cars, and utilise low- carbon fuels. 1.2. Goal and Objective The main objective of this study is to examine the Life Cycle Assessment of GHG emissions from biofuel production in Turkey (Biodiesel and Bioethanol) by analysing the biofuel production by selected feedstocks. These feedstocks are determined taking into account the Turkish agricultural system: rapeseed to produce biodiesel, waste oil to produce biodiesel, sugar beet to produce bioethanol, and corn to produce bioethanol. Secondly, this study aims to forecast the GHG emission saving potential from the Turkish transportation sector by substituting petroleum transport fuels with produced biofuels by considering different biofuel blending rates. A comparison analysis was conducted between the life cycle of biodiesel and bioethanol GHG emissions to their fossil fuel alternatives to calculate the emission reduction potential of biofuels. Besides, a comparison analysis was conducted for calculated life cycle GHG emissions of biofuels with EU RED default values. Based on the life cycle GHG emissions of the biofuel production pathways, a policy analysis was conducted to understand the GHG contribution of the different stages: cultivation, biorefinery and transport in the system boundary of each pathway. 5 In addition, GHG emission reduction potentials of different blending ratios of the produced biodiesel and bioethanol are estimated until 2030. Finally, crop demand analysis for biofuel production was conducted according to various blending ratios until 2030. 1.3. Scope of the Study This study provides baseline information on the life cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel and bioethanol production based on the most common feedstocks used for biofuel generation in Turkey, mainly rapeseed, waste oil, sugar beet, and corn. The analyses included the cradle-to-gate concept and used BioGrace GHG Calculation Tool [7], recognized as a voluntary scheme by the European Commission. The baseline information includes comparison analyses to provide policy advice, namely, a comparison of the lifecycle of biodiesel and bioethanol GHG emissions to their fossil fuel alternatives to show the emission reduction potentials of biofuels in Turkey. In addition, a comparison analysis of lifecycle GHG emissions of biofuels with EU context, which is given as EU RED default values, is included to show the differences between the EU and Turkish context. In the study, a forecasting scenario of GHG emission saving potential from the Turkish transportation sector by substituting petroleum transport fuels with produced biofuels is given. Different biofuel blending rates were considered, and the projections were made until 2030. The base year was selected as 2020, and relevant data was taken from TURKSTAT. Due to data availability for the base year, only passenger cars were used to develop blending scenarios for all vehicle types. The study considered five types of blending rates for biodiesel (B0.5, B2, B5, B20, B100) and six types of blending rates for bioethanol (E3, E5, E10, E20, E85, E100). Crop demand analyses for rapeseed, sugar beet and corn were conducted to provide baseline information for biofuel production in Turkey by considering different blending ratios until 2030. 6 1.4. Structure of the Study There are seven chapters in this study. In the first chapter, preliminary information about the study, problem definition, goal and objective, and scope of the study are presented. In Chapter 2, background information on biofuels is given. This includes Turkey’s biofuel situation, historical development, legal situation, a review of EU biofuel directives, and biofuel- food production dilemma. Studies on these subjects are included in Chapter 3. In Chapter 4, information on BioGrace Calculation Tool is presented. The methodology and data sources of the study are given in Chapter 5. In Chapter 6, the results of the study are presented, and discussions are made on these results. In the last chapter, Chapter 7, the conclusions of the study are presented. 7 2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION This section provides detailed information on the definition and categorization of biofuels and Turkey’s biofuel situation, including historical development and legal status, policies, strategies, and targets. 2.1. What is Biofuel? Biomass can be described as all biologically produced carbon-based materials on Earth, which is considered a significant renewable energy source. Biomass has a strategic role among renewable energy sources, as it is environmentally friendly and suitable for producing liquid, solid, and gaseous fuels. Also, biomass is considered the only naturally carbon-rich material source on Earth besides fossil fuels among all the other renewable energy sources [6]. Biomass is used widely as an energy source in today's world to improve energy supply security, reduce the dependence on imported fossil fuels, decrease GHG emissions, and thus, mitigate climate change and enhance local development. There are a lot of different feedstocks to produce biomass energy. Agriculture, forests, wastes and residues provide most of the world's usable biomass [7]. Algae culture is another area to produce biofuel; however, it is still developing. Bioheat and biopower can be produced using several types of biomass sources. The origin and content of biomass can be characterized based on their organic matter elemental composition, calorific value, physical qualities, mineral matter and moisture content, biochemical composition, and so on. [7]. Table 1 shows the broad categories of biomass sources and their content and origin. 8 Table 1. Biomass categories, contents, and origins [7] Biomass Sources Category Woody Non-woody Content • Lignocellulose • Lignocellulose • Sugar • Starch • Oil Origin • Forest • Agriculture • Wastes/Residues • Agriculture • Wastes/Residues Biomass is a broad term that encompasses all biologically produced matters, including growing plants and animal manure, such as oilseed plants (soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, etc.), wood (energy forests and woody leftovers), carbon hydrate plants (corn, wheat, potato, beet, etc.), fibre plants (sorghum, hemp plant, linseed, etc.), vegetal wastes (straw, stalk, branch, root, husk, etc.), animal wastes, industrial and municipal wastes; and algae [6]. Producing energy from biomass is a versatile system, and diverse biomass sources can be transformed using various conversation technologies. While some renewable energy sources produce heat and electricity, such as solar, wind, hydro, etc., biomass is considered the only alternative source to fossil sources to produce fuels, chemicals, and other carbon-based materials. Based on the choice of feedstock, production process, and development stage, biofuels are typically divided into first-, second-, third-, and fourth-generation. However, the same biofuel may be classified differently depending on technology maturity, physical state, and other variables. First-generation biofuels are currently used and produced in large amounts on commercial scales. Bioethanol from sugar and starch-based feedstocks, biodiesel from oil crop-based feedstock and biogas from anaerobic digestion are the most common. Although second-generation biofuels have been produced, their widespread use has been limited by technological difficulties and expensive costs. Bioethanol, biodiesel, biohydrogen and synthetic biofuels are some examples of 9 second-generation biofuels. These fuels are produced from non-food crops that do not compete directly with food crops (lignocellulosic biomass such as agricultural and forestry residues/wastes, non-edible vegetable oils, used cooking oils, and animal fats). Third-generation biofuels will be applicable as of 2030 and are produced from algae or genetically modified feedstocks that contain less lignin and more cellulose, which will not compete with food crops. Similarly, fourth-generation biofuels will be applicable as of 2030 and are referred to as carbon-negative biofuels. They are produced from feedstocks with consummated genetics. Advanced technologies like sequestration and carbon storage will lower the expected CO2 emissions [6]. Based on technology maturity, there are two types of biofuel technologies classification: “conventional” and “advanced”. While conventional biofuel technologies cover first-generation biofuels, advanced biofuel technologies cover second-, third- and fourth-generation biofuels, which are still in research and development. Biofuels can also be classified based on their physical forms; • as solid (biochar, biopellet, woodchip, biobriquette, etc.), • as liquid (bioethanol, biodiesel, biomethanol, etc.), • and as gas (biogas, biohydrogen, biosynthesis gas, etc.) [8]. The development of biorefineries is currently being driven by the liquid biofuel industry (mostly biodiesel and bioethanol plants). 2.1.1. Biorefinery Technology The biorefinery idea has emerged for the conversion of biomass into energy carriers (biofuels, bioheat, biopower, biocold) and a variety of valuable products (biomaterials, biochemicals) such as food and feed [8]. 10 Biorefinery technology can produce a flexible product mixture and energy carriers through different biomass conversation technologies such as biochemical, physicochemical, thermochemical, and physical/mechanical, depending mainly on features of the biomass feedstock and the desired intermediate and final products . Figure 2 presents the schematic biorefinery technology. Figure 2. Schematic Biorefinery Technology [9] Biorefineries function similarly to petrochemical (oil) refineries. Unlike fossil-based refineries, which create a range of energy carriers and products from fossil sources like crude oil, biorefineries utilise biomass as a feedstock and create safe and environmentally friendly products like food and feed. Furthermore, a biorefinery designed for energy generation must not compete with food production; therefore, food and feed sources cannot be used ethically as raw materials for a biorefinery. Biorefineries offer considerable economic and environmental benefits comparing fossil-based refineries and other biomass utilization concepts. Traditional and modern biomass use for energy production is the primary category. Conventional biomass utilization worldwide includes direct combustion to heat and cook, widely used in rural regions. Modern biomass utilization in the world includes biomass energy systems to transform biomass into useful forms of energy. 11 2.1.2. Liquid Biofuels Biodiesel and bioethanol are the most important and the first liquid biofuels that come to mind worldwide. They are the most important commercially available industrial liquid biofuels, with a market share growing by the day. In 2020, bioethanol and biodiesel supplied about 3.5% of the energy used in transportation. After dropping in 2020 due to a decrease in transportation demand caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, biofuel production levels returned to 2019 levels in 2021. However, high feedstock production costs limited biofuel production in 2021. Production of bioethanol increased by 26% between 2011 and 2021. In addition, between 2011 and 2021, the world's biodiesel production doubled [10]. Biofuels are now seen as key players in circular and creative economies. They have a unique role in bio trade, which entails collecting, producing, transforming, and commercialising natural biodiversity goods and services according to environmental, economic, and social sustainability criteria [11]. Bioethanol and biodiesel play a significant role in the transportation sector to support countries’ strategies towards sustainability, low carbon economy, and climate change mitigation. Biofuels are important in fighting climate change as they are considered carbon-neutral. Biofuels do not contribute to an increase in the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration because the amount of CO2 emitted during combustion is balanced by the CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere by photosynthesis when biomass feedstock is grown. Even if biofuels are essential in fighting climate change, their effects on biodiversity, water resources, soils, and agricultural land-use change are crucial. 2.1.2.1. Biodiesel Biodiesel is mainly made from vegetable oils, but it can also be made from animal fat or cooking oil. Based on the composition of the feedstock, various conversation technologies can be used to produce biodiesel. The most common process is 12 transesterifying vegetable oils with methanol to make fatty acid methyl esters; FAME. Low concentrations of water and free fatty acids in vegetable oil can provide high conversation efficiencies. Therefore, in the case of animal fats and used cooking oils, free fatty acids should be esterified or separated to increase efficiency. Only two manufacturing facilities often carry out integrated biodiesel plants with oil mills and transesterification. Oilseeds are used as feedstock in integrated plants, and the oil is produced directly in the biodiesel plant. Oils are obtained from external oil mills by plants focusing on pure transesterification. In both types, the oils or fats are transesterified, and the biodiesel and the resulting by-product, glycerol (mostly), are refined. Figure 3 shows the schematic biodiesel production in integrated biodiesel plants and pure transesterification plants. Figure 3. Biodiesel production in integrated biodiesel plants and pure transesterification plants [12] The production and use of biodiesel started in the 1890s with the invention of the first diesel engine by Rudolf Diesel. At the Paris Exposition in 1900, Rudolf Diesel displayed his diesel engine running on peanut oil. In the next 20-30 years, many countries started using vegetable oils as fuels in internal combustion engines. In 1937, G. Chavanne was granted a patent for the use of ethyl esters of palm oil as diesel fuel, which is most likely the first mention of what is now known as biodiesel. The subject did not receive widespread attention until high petroleum prices in the 1970s prompted substantial study into alternate fuels. The Scientist E. Parente 13 invented the first industrial-scale biodiesel synthesis technology using ethanol transesterification in 1977. The world's first industrial-scale biodiesel facility began operations in 1989 in Austria, using rapeseed as a biomass feedstock. Biodiesel has been commercially produced worldwide since the early 1990s, and applicable ASTM and EN standards were developed in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Today, biodiesel has many forms in the market: as a blend component, as an additive, and as a pure- neat fuel (B100) [6], [13]. Biodiesel production in the world reached 45 billion litres in 2021. With an 18% production rate (more than 8 billion litres in 2021), Indonesia is now the world’s leading biodiesel producer. Indonesia increased its biodiesel blending target from 20% to 30% in 2020 and set a 40% target for 2021 to lessen its reliance on imported oil. However, this target was postponed to 2020 due to high feedstock costs. By producing and using biodiesel as an alternative fuel, Indonesia was able to decrease its import oil cost by 4 billion USD in 2021. Brazil raised its biodiesel production to 6.5 billion litres in 2021 and placed itself as the world’s second-largest biodiesel producer. Brazil also put biodiesel blending targets as 13% for 2021 and 15% for 2022. However, the blending rate in 2021 was reduced to 10% due to high soya oil prices, raising biodiesel's cost and declining demand. The USA increased its biodiesel production level to 70% between 2011 and 2021. However, biodiesel production partially decreased in 2021 because of the high soya oil cost, making manufacturing financially unattractive [10]. In 2020, the EU biodiesel production declined by 2% compared to 2019 because of lower domestic consumption and lower demand from the world market. Germany, with a 4.1 million litre production, was the most prominent European producer in 2021, followed by France, with a 2.1 million litre production [14]. 14 2.1.2.2. Bioethanol Bioethanol is primarily produced from feedstocks that contain sugar, such as sugar beet, molasses, sugar cane, sweet sorghum or starch, such as wheat, maize, triticale, and rye, as well as materials derived from lignocellulose such as forest and agricultural residues. Bioethanol production involves a series of different process phases. Firstly, a fermentable sugar solution is produced as part of the feedstock processing. The methods used include mechanical, thermal, chemical, and biochemical processes. In fermentation, yeasts are utilized to transform the sugar solution into alcohol (ethanol) and CO2, which can then be processed to produce a co-product. The distillation and rectification processes remove water and residues from the feedstock from the ethanol. Before marketing, the ethanol is dehydrated to a concentration of 99.9 wt.%. If the feedstock is sugar, the main co-product is vinasse. If the feedstock is starch, the main co-product is stillage. These co-products can be processed and utilized as fertilizer, animal feed, or to produce biogas. Different co-products, such as bran, gluten, and germ oil, can be produced from starch and sugar feedstocks. Also, carbonatation lime and beet pulp can be produced as co-products. The below figure shows an overview of the bioethanol production process. Figure 4. Overview of the bioethanol production process [15] Bioethanol has a long history as an engine fuel, dating back to the invention of internal combustion engines. Nikolaus August Otto, the inventor of the modern four- cycle internal combustion engine, used alcohol as fuel in his engine studies. The 15 combustion of alcohol was taken into account by Henry Ford in his design studies, and the first automobile powered by ethanol (the Ford Motor T) was manufactured in the United States in 1908. Bioethanol was first used in Brazil in 1931, with 5% blending to gasoline. US army built the first industrial-scale fuel ethanol plant in the 1940s. In the 1970s, the oil crisis increased interest in ethanol as a fuel. The 1980s and 1990s were important periods for bioethanol production as there were solid steps in designing and engineering studies. Bioethanol is now the world's leading engine biofuel. Bioethanol can be used in blends or its pure form. Bioethanol can be blended with any proportion of gasoline or diesel fuel. However, the most popular blending ratios are gasoline + 5% alcohol at maximum (e-gasoline); gasoline + 10% alcohol (gasohol); gasoline + 20%, + 25%, +85% (E20, E25, E85 respectively), diesel fuel + 15% alcohol at maximum (e-diesel or diesohol, or oxydiesel) [6],[13]. Bioethanol remained the leading source of transport biofuels in the world in 2021, with a production amount of 150 billion litres. However, production slightly declined in 2020 due to the pandemic. The USA and Brazil stayed the world's leading producers, accounting for 83% of the global output in 2021. The USA produced 54% of the worldwide supply, mainly from corn, while Brazil produced 29% primarily from sugar cane but growing levels from corn. China became the third largest bioethanol producer in 2021, with a production amount of 3.3 billion litres, where it was responsible for 3% of the global supply, followed by India, with a production amount of 3.2 billion litres [10]. In 2020, the EU bioethanol production was 4.7 billion litres, with a cut of around 10% due to the COVID-19 crisis. Bioethanol production fell mainly in France and Belgium in 2020; however, the production suffered from the reduced demand in the domestic and export markets. The bioethanol production in 2021 was nearly 8 billion litres. There were some limits on the production of first-generation bioethanol, and the expansion of cellulosic bioethanol production remained limited due to high costs and a lack of certainty in the EU policy-making process [14]. 16 2.2. Biofuel Sector in Turkey At the National Agriculture Conference, liquid biofuels and the need to use locally produced engine fuels were first considered in Turkey in 1931 to reduce the country's dependency on imported petroleum. In 1936, the second five-year industrialization plan created under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, included a section on the necessity to produce non-petroleum- based engine fuels using domestic resources. The idea, however, could not be implemented due to the start of World War II. Liquid biofuels became important in Turkey in the 1970s due to oil shortages and price changes, as in many other countries. With the increased importance in the market, legal regulations on liquid biofuels were also developed [16]. 2.2.1. Biodiesel in Turkey The first biodiesel-related study in Turkey was conducted in 1934 at the Atatürk Forest Farm under Atatürk's directions, titled "use of vegetable oils for agricultural tractors”. Following the oil crisis of the 1970s, research into the use of vegetable oils as a fuel alternative increased, especially in the 1980s. Industrial biodiesel production has been popular in Turkey since the early 2000s. Regulations for the biodiesel industry started in 2003 and have continued until now. After petrol and diesel, biodiesel is now Turkey's third engine fuel in the liquid fuel market. As a liquid fuel, biodiesel is subject to all legal definitions, regulations, and inspections. Biodiesel producers must get a processing license from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) to produce biodiesel under license and following the Turkish Standards Institute's (TSE) standards. Biodiesel producers should submit a report annually to EMRA on the production amount they can present to the market for the upcoming year and three months' production amounts within the year. EMRA is also responsible for all quality controls, including controlling blending rates [6]. Table 2 shows the biodiesel delivery amount in Turkey in 2020. 17 Table 2. Amount of biodiesel delivered in Turkey in 2020 [17] Company Name City Feedstock Delivery to Distributor Total DB Tarımsal Enerji Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş İzmir Vegetable Oil, Waste Oil 58,678,421 58,678,421 Aves Enerji Yağ ve Gıda Sanayi A.Ş. Mersin Vegetable Oil 14,805,316 14,805,316 Ömer Bucak İnşaat Taahhüt Sanayi ve Ticaret Limited Şirketi Şanlıurfa N/A 650,000 650,000 Maysa Yağ Sanayi A.Ş İstanbul N/A 442,015 442,015 Total: 74,575,752 Sunflower and cottonseed are Turkey's most important oilseed crops, accounting for over 90% of the total production of 3,131,193 tons. Groundnut, soybean, rapeseed, and safflower are other important oilseed crops. Rapeseed and safflower production, which are not used primarily for food in the country, has seen significant growth in the recent decade. In Turkey, biodiesel producers have chosen rapeseed and safflower crops as their raw materials, particularly as they have been doing contractual farming across the country. Safflower is particularly popular in low- yielding, low-rainfall farmlands, providing a solid, satisfying income for the farmer thanks to government subsidies. Camelina has become popular for biodiesel producers as it offers farmers a good and reliable alternative crop [18]. On the other hand, even though Turkey possesses arable land for oilseed crop development, the area assigned to oilseed cultivation in the country is less than 5%. Unfortunately, oilseed production in Turkey does not cover the country's consumption rate, and thousands of tons of oilseeds and vegetable oils (even for food) are imported annually. Imports provide 75% of the raw material requirements for the vegetable oil sector. As a result, increasing the production of oilseeds is critical for Turkey's long-term development goals [19] [20]. Table 3. Turkey's oilseed production in 2020 [19] Sunflower Rapeseed Cotton seed Soybean Production (Tons) 2,067,004 121,542 106,4189 155225 Area Sown (Hectare) 728,854 34,989 359,220 35,135 18 In addition to oilseed crops, waste vegetable oils are the other significant raw material potential for biodiesel manufacturing in Turkey. Turkey has the capacity to collect more than 150,000 tons of waste vegetable oil every year. Only 38,000 tons of waste vegetable oil were collected and used to produce biodiesel in 2017 [21]. The legal framework for collecting used cooking oil is under development. The Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change implements an online system for registering and processing used cooking oils from the source to its conversion to biodiesel. The system aims to collect and process used cooking oils with complete monitoring, ensuring they do not re-enter the food chain. The biodiesel industry provides a large quantity of labour and management capacity to collect and process more used cooking oils for biodiesel production. The expectation is that the volumes will gradually increase to their maximum capacity. 2.2.2. Bioethanol in Turkey Bioethanol was first discussed in Turkey in 1931 during a National Agriculture Conference to minimize dependence on imported petroleum. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's Second Five-Year Development Plan emphasized the need to create non- petroleum-based engine fuels using domestic sources. In 1942, 20 % bioethanol was blended with gasoline and used in the army. In 1974, after the oil crisis worldwide, Turkish Sugar Factories started exploring bioethanol production to use it as fuel. Tarkim Bitki Koruma San ve Tic A.Ş, Turkey’s first and leading bioethanol producer, has a capacity of 40 million litres per year and is the first E2 (2% ethanol and 98% petroleum) supplier in the liquid fuel sector. Çumra Sugar Integrated Plant (Konya Şeker) is one of the biggest bioethanol producers in Turkey, with a capacity of 84 million litres per year. In addition, Tezkim Tarımsal Kimya A.Ş. produces 100,000 litres of bioethanol daily using corn as raw material and has a capacity of 26 million litres per year. Eskisehir Sugar Plant, which has a capacity of 20 million litres per year, is one of the bioethanol plants established in Turkey. According to official data from the Tobacco and Alcohol Market Regulatory Authority (TAMRA) [6]. Turkey's 19 overall bioethanol production capacity is approximately 162 million litres annually; 46.9% of this amount is used as fuel. A share of 8% of bioethanol is exported, and 92% is blended with gasoline to meet the country’s fuel needs [22]. The bioethanol plants in Turkey use sugar- or starch-based feedstocks, known as first-generation bioethanol production. These feedstocks are produced from energy crops and can also be consumed as food. In 2019, there were 13 companies registered as producers of ethyl alcohol in Turkey, with a total capacity of 237,811,000 litres per year [23]. Table 4 shows the bioethanol delivery amount in Turkey in 2020. Table 4. Bioethanol delivery amount in Turkey in 2020 [17] Company Name Blended Products City Feedstock Delivery to Refinery (tons) Delivery to Distributor (tons) Total (tons) Tarkim Tarımsal Kimya A.Ş. Bioethanol Bursa Maize - 20,094,630 20,094,630 Konya Şeker A.Ş. Bioethanol Konya Sugar beet, molasses 5,542,750 10,655,76 16,198,486 Tezkim Tarımsal Kimya A.Ş. Bioethanol Adana Maize, wheat - 15,974,916 15,974,916 Total: 5,542,750 121,301,034 126,843,784 Sugar beet, molasses, wheat, and maize (corn) are Turkey's most common feedstocks for bioethanol production. 2.3. Energy Crops Used for Biofuel Production or Food Currently, there is an ongoing debate on using energy crops for fuel production or food production all over the World. Energy crops are valuable, and producing biofuel from those materials may put the food supply at risk due to the increased use of food crops and lead to food insecurity. Currently, food insecurity is one of the most significant problems in the world, with roughly 842 million people worldwide estimated to be suffering from a lack of regular access to sufficient and nutritious 20 food. The rapid development of the global biofuel industry is anticipated to exacerbate this problem. As a result of the growing use of food crops, increased biofuel production may affect food availability. Figure 5 presents the impacts of biofuels on food security. Figure 5. Total crop and food production indices of 511 developing countries between 2011 and 2016 [24] In Figure 5, the historical relationship between crop production and food production is presented. It demonstrates that while total crop production in 51 developing countries increases, the total food production tends to decrease, which is against the expectation that it should also increase. This could be linked to the rapidly growing biofuel sector in the same period, as shown in Figure 6. 1 Angola, Belarus Argentina, Bulgaria, Bolivia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador,aEgypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Malawi, Mexico, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama,a Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Serbia, Sudan, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Republic of Tanzania,aUruguay, Viet Nam, Barbados, Croatia, Cuba, Fiji, Iran, Mauritius, Jamaica, Swaziland, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe 21 Figure 6. Total Biofuel and food production of 51 developing countries [24] The primary source of this debate assumes that the competition between biofuel production and food production drives up food prices and price volatility, which ultimately causes food insecurity. Increased use of basic agricultural commodities for biofuel production inevitably leads to crop shortages and higher food commodity prices [25]. 22 Figure 7. The relationship between biofuels and food security [25] In this regard, second-generation biofuel production has gained importance around the world. Second-generation biofuel production uses lignocellulosic feedstocks, the most studied since they do not compete with food production. As a significant cereal producer, Turkey has enormous potential for growing energy crops, plant leftovers and other cellulosic biomaterials suitable for producing second-generation bioethanol [26]. However, there is currently no industrial production of second- generation bioethanol in Turkey. 2.4. Legal Situation of The Biofuel Sector in Turkey On December 4, 2003, the term "biodiesel" was included among the blended products for the first time in the "petroleum market law no. 5015”. Biodiesel production has increased quickly since the law exempted it from the special consumption tax. On September 10, 2004, biodiesel was accepted as fuel oil, and on June 17, 2005, the imports, distribution, transportation, and end-user sales were included in the petroleum market license. Turkish Standards Institution (TSE) 23 published the first Turkish biodiesel standards (TS EN 14214 for auto biodiesel and TS EN 14213 for fuel oil biodiesel) in 2005, the same as the EU standards. Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA), in 2006, with its technical regulation communiqué on the production of diesel oil types, their supply from domestic and international sources, and delivery to the market, enabled a blending ratio of up to 5% in the transportation sector. Again, in 2006, in response to claims of unfair competition in the petroleum market, a special consumption tax was applied to auto biodiesel within the framework of “income tax law no: 5479”. In addition, due to the high special consumption tax, the biodiesel sector was exempted from the special consumption tax in 2006 if the blending ratio for auto biodiesel produced from domestic agricultural products was at least 2%. As a result, an optional biodiesel contribution of 2% to diesel fuel has started. On September 27, 2011, the Turkish official gazette published the amendment to the communiqué on technical requirements for diesel types numbered 28067. With this, blending biodiesel from local agricultural feedstocks to the diesel types supplied as fuel oil to the market became mandatory to apply a minimum of 1% in 2014, 2% in 2015, and 3% in 2016. This communiqué was later cancelled. The technical regulatory communiqué on the production of fuel biodiesel and its delivery from domestic and international sources (Turkish official gazette of February 4, 2015, numbered 29257) was also lifted from enforcement. Based on the communiqué, numbered 30098, on blending biodiesel to diesel fuel issued in the Turkish official gazette on June 6, 2017, biodiesel produced from local agricultural feedstocks and/or waste vegetable oils must now be blended with the diesel fuel provided by refineries at a minimum of 0.5 % (v/v). In addition, the Turkish biodiesel standard, TS EN 14214:2012+A1:2014 (liquid petroleum products - Fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) for use in diesel engines and heating applications - Requirements and test methods), has been cancelled by TSE. However, the Ministry maintained it as a mandatory practice for the indication of blending ratio [27]. 24 On April 19, 2005, the regulation for producing biodiesel from waste vegetable oils as an alternate source of raw material for biodiesel production was issued for the first time (Turkish official gazette numbered 25791). It was afterwards lifted from enforcement. Currently, the regulation on waste vegetable oil control numbered 29378, published in the Turkish official gazette on June 6, 2015, is applicable. The Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change is in charge of waste vegetable oil collection and transportation, as well as recycling process licenses and control procedures. In addition, Turkey has sought to become a full member of the EU since 1987 by aligning its legal framework with the EU standards. As part of the harmonization process, Turkey is harmonizing its regulatory framework in the environmental sector, including developing renewable energy. Therefore, the EU has a variety of effects on Turkey's policy towards renewable energy, including biomass-based energy production and utilization. 2.5. Scope of EU Biofuels Directives To enhance energy supply security by reducing the reliance on imported fossil fuels, decreasing GHG emissions, and thus, mitigating climate change, the EU defined sustainable criteria for the whole bioenergy sector. This is accomplished under the Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC (EU RED) and Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001 (EU RED II), which is a recast of Directive 2009/28/EC and adapted in 2018 as part of “Clean energy for all Europeans Package” [28]. The EU RED established a common framework for promoting energy from renewable sources in the EU. This directive established a binding target for renewable energy to be met by 2020 with a contribution of 20% to the total final energy supply in the EU and at least 10% to the transport sector in each Member State. EU RED II covers the period between 2021 and 2030 and sets a new binding renewable energy target for 2030: at least 32% of the gross final energy consumption and at least 14% of renewable energy supply in the transportation sector.[29]. In 25 terms of binding sustainability criteria and bioenergy verification requirements, RED I specified at least 35% and 60% savings for waste/residues and biofuels produced in installations starting on or after January 1, 2017, respectively. RED II specified at least 65% for biofuels, biogas used in transportation, and bioliquids produced in operation from January 1, 2021 [28]. Due to the substantial uncertainty about the environmental performance of bioenergy chains, many countries have required some minimum requirements for biofuel production to be eligible for public incentives [30]. Fulfilling the specific criteria is significant to reach the above targets of EU RED to receive financial support. Energy production from biofuel is playing a key role in fulfilling these targets [31]. EU RED II also requires a 6.8% increase in the share of other "low-emission fuels" in transportation, such as renewable electricity and advanced biofuels. Moreover, the Commission states that advanced biofuels produce at least 70% less GHG emissions than fossil fuels (compared to savings of 60% in 2018 for new production plants by RED). This seems to indicate a trend in which the EC will continue to assist the development of advanced alternative fuels for transportation by enforcing a blending mandate on fuel suppliers while progressively phasing out the contribution of food-based biofuels. The negative public view partly drives the trend that biofuels compete directly with food. As Marie Donelly, Former Director for Renewables, Research, and Energy Efficiency in the Commission’s Energy directorate, puts it, “we have to be very sensitive to the reality of citizens’ concerns, sometimes even if these concerns are emotive rather than factual based or scientific [32]”. 2.6. Closing Remarks Biomass is considered one of the most important renewable energy sources and the only alternative source to fossil sources to produce fuels, chemicals and other carbon-based materials. Biofuels are usually categorised into 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th 26 generation biofuels based on feedstock choice, production process and development stage. 1st generation biofuels are currently used and produced in large amounts on commercial scales. Bioethanol, biodiesel and biogas are the most common ones. The most critical and first liquid biofuels are biodiesel and bioethanol. They are commercially available, and their market share is steadily increasing. In 2020, bioethanol and biodiesel provided about 3.5% of transportation energy. Biofuel production levels returned to 2019 levels in 2021 after falling in 2020 due to reduced transportation demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Biofuels are essential in combating climate change because they are carbon-neutral. Thus, bioethanol and biodiesel play a vital role in the transportation sector to support countries' sustainability and low-carbon development strategies. To improve energy supply security by reducing the dependence on imported fossil fuels, decreasing GHG emissions, and thus, mitigating climate change, the EU defined sustainable criteria for the whole bioenergy sector. This is accomplished through the EU RED and EU RED II directives. EU RED established a binding target for renewable energy to be met by 2020 with a contribution of 20% to the total final energy supply in the EU and at least 10% to the transport sector in each Member State. EU RED II covers the period between 2021 and 2030 and sets a new binding renewable energy target for 2030: at least 32% of the gross final energy consumption and at least 14% of renewable energy supply in the transportation sector. Regarding GHG saving thresholds for transportation biofuels, RED I specified at least 60% savings for biofuels produced in installations starting on January 1, 2017, and RED II set at least 65% for biofuels produced in operation from January 1, 2021. Turkey is aligning its regulatory framework in the environmental sector with the EU standards, including developing renewable and biomass-based energy production and utilization. 27 3. PREVIOUS STUDIES The emissions from the whole life cycle of producing and delivering biofuels must be favourable to ensure they successfully reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector [33]. According to Matthew Aylott from UK’s National Non-Food Crop Centre, measuring the life cycle GHG emissions of biofuels is a serious and complex issue. The emissions from a biofuel supply chain cannot be measured directly; instead, models or tools are required to calculate the effects of biofuel production [34]. The provision of biofuel involves the consumption of non-renewable sources during cultivation, harvesting, transport, and processing [34]. By identifying and quantifying energy and materials flows and waste and emissions emitted, the LCA approach is frequently used to assess the environmental impacts associated with a product, process, or activity. The method has been used as a standard to determine biofuels' life-cycle GHG emissions. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards provide a general structure for conducting the assessment. Defining scope, system boundaries, functional units, and reference systems; determining mass and energy flows; addressing co- products; and attributing impacts to energy and material flows are all steps in the overall procedure [35]. New criteria for effective GHG reduction strategies are currently emerging in response to global climate change. As a result of the specialized evaluation demands for GHG emissions, interest in life cycle studies for energy applications has grown. Significant effort is being made, particularly in EU nations, to determine life cycle GHG emissions using LCA principles to achieve ecologically sustainable biofuel production. 3.1. Studies on Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Biofuel Generation Acquaye et al. assessed the life cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel and bioethanol and compared them to fossil fuels to analyze the potential of biofuels contributing to 28 the UK emission reduction targets and, thus, EU emission reduction targets [36]. The results of the study showed that the life cycle GHG emission of rapeseed-based biodiesel is found as 55.5 kg CO2 eq/GJ, waste oil-based biodiesel is found as 10.6 kg CO2 eq/GJ, sugar beet-based bioethanol is found 26.6 kg CO2 eq/GJ, and corn- based bioethanol is found 70.3 kg CO2 eq/GJ. Based on these results, waste oil- based biodiesel and sugar beet-based bioethanol offer the most significant potential for emission saving in the UK context. Another study in the UK is conducted to compare the life cycle GHG emissions of large-scale and small-scale biodiesel production from rapeseed oil. According to Gupta et al., large-scale biodiesel production systems in the UK have an annual global warming potential of 2.63 tons CO2eq/ton biodiesel [37]. Small-scale biodiesel production systems in the UK have an annual global warming potential of 2.88 ton CO2eq/ton biodiesel, whereas the rapeseed agriculture stage caused more than 65% carbon emissions. Fridrihsone et al. analyzed the global warming potential of the seasonal cultivation of rapeseed in Latvia [38]. Due to more agricultural inputs and a higher yield, winter rapeseed production has a lesser environmental impact than spring rapeseed agriculture. Seasonal variation of GWP for rapeseed-based biodiesel production was found as 1.27 and 1.06 ton CO2eq/ton biodiesel for spring and winter, respectively. Foteinis et al. examined the environmental sustainability of second-generation biodiesel, which is used as cooking oil on an industrial scale in Greece [39]. It is found that the life cycle GHG emission of used cooking oil-based biodiesel is 14 g CO2eq/MJ. This is 40% lower than first-generation biodiesel, an order magnitude lower than third-generation biodiesel (microalgae) since it is not a fully-fledged technology yet. Given its overall low environmental footprint and commercial availability, second-generation biodiesel, which currently accounts for 15% of the biodiesel market in Greece, could serve as a stepping stone toward decarbonizing Europe's transportation sector and improving supply and energy security. 29 In Brazil, Pereira et al. [40] analyzed the main differences and similarities in the methodological structures, calculation procedures, and assumptions for the major commercial bioethanol by using three LCA calculation tools which are: BioGrace (EU), GHGenius (Canada), and GREET (U.S.). The calculated emissions across the models for corn-based bioethanol ranged from 43.4 g CO2 eq/MJ (BioGrace), 61.9 g CO2 eq/MJ (GHGenius), and 57.7 g CO2 eq/MJ (GREET). The main differences, in this case, are due to how the coproducts were treated. The default method used by BioGrace (energy) resulted in a 50% partitioning of GHG emissions between ethanol and its coproducts. In contrast, the substitution methods used by GREET and GHGenius provide credits for non-energy products to ethanol of 12.8 and 16.7 g CO2eq per MJ, respectively. 3.2. Studies Using the BioGrace Tool Most of the studies conducted in the EU have employed the BioGrace tool for the calculation of life cycle GHG emissions of biofuels. For instance, a study used the BioGrace tool to calculate the life-cycle assessment of GHG emissions from sunflower cultivation for biodiesel production in Tuscany, Italy, using different case studies from five other farms. The study showed that different cultivation techniques (Table 5) have a different impact on the life cycle GHG emission of biodiesel. Table 5. Sunflower cultivation energy inputs related to one ha for each farm in Tuscany, Italy [41] The results of the study showed that the life cycle GHG emission of biodiesel from sunflower-Farm 1 is 53.4 g CO2-eq/MJ, Farm 2= 79.4 g CO2-eq/MJ, Farm 3= 61.9 g CO2-eq/MJ, Farm 4= 53.8 g CO2-eq/MJ, Farm 5= 72.3 g CO2-eq/MJ. The GHG 30 emissions from sunflower farming in the five case studies are higher than the default value (18 g CO2eq /MJ) indicated by the RED. The main reasons for this difference with the default value are; diesel consumption and extensive use of nitrogen fertilizer which cause higher GHG emissions than the default value. These findings suggest that without a considerable change in local farm practices, primarily oriented toward reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers and diesel consumption. It will be difficult to comply with such requirements on GHG emissions for the sunflower biodiesel cultivation phase in Tuscany [41]. Another study conducted in Germany used BioGrace Tool to calculate GHG emissions of sugar beet cultivation in Germany by using data from farm surveys. However, in this study, the BioGrace tool was used for calculations concerning sugar beet cultivation only, as the tool allows for examining the production of the biofuel crops separately. The study considered emissions from producing and using fertilizers and pesticides, tillage, and field emissions. As a result, total GHG emissions of sugar beet cultivation in Germany between 2010 and 2012 were estimated as 2626 CO2eq kg ha−1 year−1 when applying mineral plus organic fertilizer and 1782 CO2eq kg ha−1 year−1 when only organic fertilizer was applied. CO2eq emissions from N fertilization were 2.5 times higher than diesel and further production factors. The absence of emissions for producing organic fertilizers led to 12% less total CO2eq emissions than mineral fertilisers. However, there were more emissions via diesel due to larger volumes transported by using organic fertilizer only [42]. 3.3. Studies on GHG Emission Estimation of Turkish Crops To the best of our knowledge, there is no scientific study conducted for the Life Cycle Assessment of GHG emissions from biofuel production in Turkey. In Turkey's context, BioGrace default values are used by some studies to calculate GHG emissions for the cultivation process of specific feedstocks. For example, in a study, GHG emissions of cotton cultivation in the Besiri region of Batman province in Turkey were determined using various default values such as chemicals, nitrogen, 31 phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, and electricity data listed in the BioGrace Calculation tool. The necessary cultivation data is collected through face- to-face surveys with 64 selected farms in the 2018-2019 cultivation season. The total GHG emission of cotton cultivation was calculated as 3742.50 kg CO2eq /ha [43]. Similarly, in another study conducted in Turkey to determine GHG in the production of different aromatic plants, various default values from the BioGrace Calculation tool, NPK fertilizers and pesticides are used. The results indicated that total GHG emissions for four different aromatic plant productions (guar, lavender, sesame, and tobacco) were computed as 1488.50 kgCO2eq /ha, 494.81 kg CO2eq /ha, 907.13 kg CO2eq /ha, 6604.58 kg CO2eq /ha respectively [44]. 3.4. Closing Remarks In this section, we analysed various studies to examine different practices to better understand (i) life cycle GHG emissions of biofuels, mainly of biodiesel production from rapeseed and waste oil, bioethanol production from sugar beet and corn, (ii) BioGrace use to analyse different feedstock’s GHGs, (iii) Turkey context. The results of the studies analysed above are shown in the tables below. As seen in Table 6, the life cycle GHG emission estimates of biodiesel production from rapeseed range from 27.5 g CO2 eq/MJ to 74.6 g CO2 eq/MJ. This difference could be due to the scale of the biodiesel production facility, the global warming potential of the seasonal cultivation of rapeseed, different cultivation methods such as using different amounts of fertilizers, and the energy intensity of the countries. The life cycle GHG emission estimates of biodiesel production from waste oil range from 14 g CO2 eq/MJ (Greece) to 10.6 g CO2 eq/MJ (UK), which is a smaller range than that of the rapeseed. In a study conducted in the UK, the life cycle GHG emission of sugar beet-based bioethanol is found to be 26.6 g CO2 eq/MJ, which offers the most significant potential for emission savings in the UK context with waste oil-based biodiesel. Life cycle GHG emission of bioethanol from corn ranges from 43.4 g CO2 eq/MJ to 70.3 g CO2 eq/MJ. Based on these estimates, we can say that different calculation tools can give different results alongside different bioethanol 32 production styles, different cultivation methods, and the energy intensity of the countries. The studies estimating life cycle GHG emissions of biofuels using BioGrace are listed in Table 7. In a study in Italy, the life cycle GHG emission of bioethanol from sunflowers was examined by comparing different farming techniques, and emissions ranged from 53.4 g CO2 eq/MJ to 79.4 g CO2 eq/MJ. The other practices of using the BioGrace tool in the literature are for calculating GHG emissions of feedstock cultivation, such as sugar beet calculation in Germany, and cotton, guar, lavender, sesame and tobacco cultivation in Turkey. The studies conducted using BioGrace for the Turkish crops are listed in Table 8. To the best of our knowledge, there is no scientific study conducted for the Life Cycle Assessment of GHG emissions from biofuel production in Turkey. This study aims to fill this gap in the Turkish context. Table 6: Previous Studies on life cycle GHG emissions of biofuel generation Country Feedstock Emission (g CO2 eq/MJ) Remarks Ref. UK Rapeseed to Biodiesel 55.5 g CO2 eq/MJ NA [36] UK Waste Oil to Biodiesel 10.6 g CO2 eq/MJ NA [36] UK Sugar beet to Bioethanol 26.6 g CO2 eq/MJ NA [36] UK Corn to Bioethanol 70.3 g CO2 eq/MJ NA [36] UK Rapeseed to Biodiesel 68.2 g CO2 eq/MJ Large-scale biodiesel production from rapeseed [37] UK Rapeseed to Biodiesel 74.6 g CO2 eq/MJ Small-scale biodiesel production from rapeseed [37] Latvia Rapeseed to Biodiesel 27.5 g CO2 eq/MJ Winter season [38] Latvia Rapeseed to Biodiesel 32.9 g CO2 eq/MJ Spring season [38] Greece Waste oil to Biodiesel 14 g CO2 eq/MJ NA [39] Brazil Corn to Bioethanol 43.4 g CO2 eq/MJ BioGrace Calculation Tool [40] Brazil Corn to Bioethanol 61.9 g CO2 eq/MJ GHGenius Calculation Tool [40] Brazil Corn to Bioethanol 57.7 g CO2 eq/MJ GREET Calculation Tool [40] Table 7: Previous studies using the BioGrace Tool Country Feedstock Emission (g CO2 eq/MJ) Remarks Ref. Italy Sunflower to Bioethanol 53.4 g CO2 eq/MJ Farm 1-LCA [41] Italy Sunflower to Bioethanol 79.4 g CO2 eq/MJ Farm 2-LCA [41] Italy Sunflower to Bioethanol 61.9 g CO2 eq/MJ Farm 3-LCA [41] 33 Country Feedstock Emission (g CO2 eq/MJ) Remarks Ref. Italy Sunflower to Bioethanol 53.8 g CO2 eq/MJ Farm 4-LCA [41] Brazil Corn to Bioethanol 43.4 g CO2 eq/MJ BioGrace Calculation Tool [40] Germany Sugar beet cultivation 2626 kg CO2eq/ha Sugar beet cultivation emission in Germany by applying mineral plus organic fertilizer [42] Germany Sugar beet cultivation 1782 kg CO2eq/ha Sugar beet cultivation emission in Germany by applying organic fertilizer [42] Table 8: Previous studies using the BioGrace Tool on GHG emission estimation of Turkish crops Feedstock Emission (g CO2 eq/MJ) Remarks Ref. Cotton cultivation 3742.5 kg CO2eq/ha Cotton cultivation in Besiri Region [43] Guar cultivation 1488.5 kg CO2eq /ha Emission of production of different aromatic plants in Turkey [44] Lavender cultivation 494.81 kg CO2eq /ha Emission of production of different aromatic plants in Turkey [44] Sesame cultivation 907.13 kg CO2eq /ha Emission of production of different aromatic plants in Turkey [44] Tobacco cultivation 6604.58 kg CO2eq /ha Emission of production of different aromatic plants in Turkey [44] 34 4. BIOGRACE-I GHG CALCULATION TOOL VERSION 4D FOR COMPLIANCE The life cycle GHG emissions analyses of biofuel production and use were conducted using “BioGrace-I GHG Calculation Tool Version 4d for Compliance”. BioGrace is a spreadsheet model for calculating biofuel GHG emissions that country model owners developed from Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom as part of a European cooperative harmonization effort to implement the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the EU Fuel Quality Directive (FQD). The calculation is based on a database that includes default values (EU averages) for 22 commercial feedstock/biofuels pathways developed by a collaborative group of experts, from the Joint European Commission (JEC), the Joint Research Center (JRC), the European Council for Automotive Research and Development (EUCAR), and the European Council for Clean Air and Water in Europe (CONCAWE) [45]. The BioGrace GHG calculation tool allows the reproduction of the Annex V default values of the Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) (EU RED) for biofuel production pathways and to perform individually adapted calculations. 4.1. Structure of the Estimation Tool The GHG emission and the GHG savings along the entire biofuel production chain are added together to calculate the GHG emissions resulting from the production and use of biofuels. The System Boundary of the Life Cycle GHG Analysis was conducted for Biofuel production, and it was developed according to Point 6, article 2 of the Fuel Quality Directive (98/70/EC). “Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions” means all net emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O that can be assigned to the fuel (including any blended components) or energy supplied. This includes all relevant stages from extraction or cultivation, including land-use changes, transport, distribution, processing and combustion, irrespective of where those emissions occur” [46]. 35 Table 9. Steps of the life cycle GHG analysis of biofuel production Name of steps Entire biofuel Production Chain Biomass supply chain • Cultivation of biomass energy crops and/or waste collection • Transport of energy crops and/or transport of wastes Biorefinery • Biofuel production processes applying biomass conversion technologies Transport and distribution • Transport of biofuel from production facility (biorefinery) to depot • Transport of biofuel from depot to filling station Use • Biofuel combustion in vehicles Based on the steps of analysing GHG emissions from biofuel production, which are given in Table 9, the total emissions of biofuel production and use should be calculated following the methods defined in the EU RED. The regulations include concrete calculation formulas. A biofuel’s GHG reduction potential is determined by the GHG emissions resulting from its production and use phases and on a comparison to a fossil fuel reference value. Total emissions were calculated based on the following formula, which is generally binding formula as per EU FQD and based on GHG emissions and GHG emission savings. In the BioGrace tool, GHG emissions from the production and use of biofuels were calculated from Equation 1 [46] : E= eec,+ el + ep + etd + eu,– esca – eccs – eccr – eee (Eq.1) where; E = total emissions from the use of the fuel; eec = emissions from the extraction or cultivation of raw materials; el = annualised emissions from carbon,stock changes caused by land use change; etd = emissions from transport and distribution; eu = emissions from the fuel in use; esca = emission savings from soil carbon accumulation via improved agricultural management; eccs = emission savings from carbon capture and geological storage; eccr = emission savings from carbon capture and replacement; and eee = emission savings from excess electricity from cogeneration. 36 The following Equation (Eq.2) is used in the calculation tool to calculate the GHG- saving potential of biofuels when compared to GHG emissions from fossil-based fuels [47]. SAVING,= (EF – EB)/EF (Eq.2) where; EB = total emissions from the biofuel; and EF = total emissions from the fossil fuel comparator. The selected feedstocks for producing biofuels in this study, which takes into account the Turkish agricultural system, are; • Rapeseed to produce biodiesel • Waste oil to produce biodiesel • Sugar beet to produce bioethanol • Corn to produce bioethanol 4.2. Closing Remarks In this study, BioGrace- I GHG Calculation Tool Version 4d for Compliance was selected to provide baseline information on the life cycle GHG emission of biodiesel and bioethanol production based on the most common feedstocks used in Turkey. The BioGrace Calculation tool is recognized as a voluntary scheme by the EC and is in line with the sustainability criteria of EU RED. 37 5. METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES This chapter presents the methodologies of the life cycle GHG analysis for biofuels from the selected feedstocks and biofuel blending scenarios that are developed based on the results of life cycle GHG analysis of biofuel production and use. The flow chart of the study’s methodology is presented below: Figure 8. Methodology flow chart of the study 5.1. Data Gathering and Analyses In this study, besides the standard values given in the BioGrace tool, various data types and parameters from different data sources are used in calculations. Some of the data used in calculations are presented in Table 10. Table 10. The data set used in calculations Type of Data Value Unit Data Source The average carbon emissions from the fossil part of gasoline and diesel 83.8 CO2eq/MJ EU Fuel Quality Directive[48] Diesel fuel - Lower Heating Value 36.0 MJ/ litre [49] Gasoline fuel - Lower Heating Value 32.0 MJ/litre [49] Biodiesel - Lower Heating Value 32.1 MJ/ litre [50] 38 Bioethanol - Lower Heating Value 21.2 MJ/litre [50] Biodiesel density 832 kg/ m3 [51] Bioethanol density 794 kg/ m3 [51] CO2 emissions from the Turkish electricity production mix 464 g CO2 / kWh [52] Fuel consumption of diesel and gasoline passenger car 0.06 Litre/km [48] Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 1 g CO2eq [48] Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CH4 23 g CO2eq [48] Global Warming Potential (GWP) of N2O 296 g CO2eq [48] - In the tool, in accordance with FQD, the functional unit was chosen as 1 MJ of fuel energy generated. Additionally, energy content was expressed in terms of the lower heating value (LHV) under dry conditions. - Unlike BioGrace tool standard values, country-specific NPK fertiliser values based on the selected crop type are provided from the official source (these data are given in the following sections) - Other required data related to crop and fuel production was given in the tables in the following sections. Due to the lack of data, some required values for calculations are taken from the tool’s database. Some of them are: - Pesticide usage amounts for all crop cultivation, energy consumption and transportation data, the yield for waste oil - In accordance with FQD, the tool also calculates GHG emissions from direct land use change during the cultivation of crops based on the required data for the country-specific. The default calculation method given in BioGrace is considered. The calculations made using the data from the guidelines on Commission Decision for the calculation of land use carbon stocks and GHG emission from the resulting land use change were found to be 0.11 ton CO2 ha-1 year-1. Table 11 shows the details of the data used in the calculation [36]. 39 Table 11. The data used for the calculation of GHG emissions resulting from the land use change Actual Land Use Reference Land Use Climate region Warm temperate, dry Warm temperate, dry Vegetation/crop (land-use) Cultivated/cropland Cultivated/cropland Soil type High activity clay High activity clay Soil management Full-tillage Reduced-tillage Soil organic carbon [ton C / ha] 38 38 Land use factor reflecting the difference in soil organic carbon associated with the type of land use compared to the standard organic carbon [-] 0.8 0.8 Management factor,reflecting the difference in soil organic carbon associated with the principle management practice compared to the standard soil organic carbon [-] 1 1.02 Input factor reflecting the difference in soil organic carbon associated with different levels of carbon input to soil compared to the standard soil organic carbon [-] 1 1 5.2. Data Input to BioGrace Calculation Tool and GHG Emission Calculation In the following sections, the data types are given based on the selected feedstock in biofuel production. 5.2.1. Data Used for Biodiesel Production from Rapeseed Various data are needed to calculate the life cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel production and use from rapeseed. Figure 9 presents all production pathways defined in the BioGrace tool. 40 Figure 9. Production pathway of Biodiesel-Rapeseed in the BioGrace tool [53] The production process is divided into four steps, as shown in Table 9. The first step is the biomass supply chain which covers the cultivation and transport of rapeseed. The required data for this step are given in the following table. Table 12. The data used in the BioGrace tool in the step of the biomass supply chain of life cycle GHG emissions from biodiesel-rapeseed Type of Data Value Unit Source Cultivation area 35,000 ha [54] Production 122,000 tons Yield 3485.7 kg ha-1 year-1 Moisture Content 10% [55] Energy Consumption, Diesel 2.87 MJ ha-1 year-1 [56] N fertiliser 122.5 kg N ha-1 year-1 [57] P fertiliser 50 kg P2O5 ha-1 year-1 [57] K fertiliser 50 kg K2O ha-1 year-1 [57] Pesticides 1.2 kg ha-1 year-1 [51] Seeding material 10 kg ha-1 year-1 [58] Rapeseed is mostly grown in Turkey's Thrace region. The amount of fertilizer required for rapeseed growing varies depending on the agricultural region's soil and climate characteristics. The fertilizer requirement rates specific to the Thrace region for rapeseed were obtained and applied in the model using the fertilizer 41 recommendation guideline [57] prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Turkey. The tool calculates direct and indirect N2O emissions from managed soils during rapeseed cultivation based on the IPCC Tier 1 approach using the required data in the table above. According to the result, the overall (direct and indirect) N2O emissions from rapeseed cultivation were found as 4.18 kg N2O ha-1 year-1. Biorefinery is the name given to the second step. This step was divided into six different processes in the tool. 1. Drying of rapeseed 2. Transport of rapeseed 3. Extraction of rapeseed oil 4. Transport of rapeseed oil 5. Refining of rapeseed oil 6. Transesterification Table 13 gives the data used in this step to calculate GHG emissions in every process. Table 13. The data used in the step of biorefinery of rapeseed [51] DRYING OF RAPESEED Rapeseed 1000 MJrapeseed/MJrapeseed, BioGrace Diesel 0.00018x MJ/MJrapeseed, BioGrace Average Electricity Mix in Turkey 0.00308x MJ/MJrapeseed, BioGrace TRANSPORT OF RAPESEED Rapeseed 0.990x MJrapeseed/MJrapeseed, BioGrace Truck for dry product- Fuel type: Diesel 50 km, BioGrace EXTRACTION OF RAPESEED OIL Yield: Crude vegetable oil 0.6125 MJoil/MJrapeseed, BioGrace Co-product rapeseed cake 0.3875 MJrapeseedcake/MJrapeseed, BioGrace Energy Consumption: Average Electricity Mix in Turkey 0.0118x MJ/MJoil, BioGrace Steam (from NG boiler) 0.0557x MJ/MJoil (Heat), BioGrace NG Boiler: Natural gas input/MJ steam 1.111x MJ/MJsteam , BioGrace Natural gas (4000xkm, EU mix quality) 0.062x MJ/MJoil, BioGrace 42 Electricity input/MJ steam 0.020x MJ/MJsteam , BioGrace Average electricity mix in Turkey 0.001x MJ/MJoil, BioGrace Chemicals: n-Hexane 0.0043 MJ/MJoil, BioGrace TRANSPORT OF RAPESEED OIL Crude vegetable oil 1000 MJoil/MJoil, BioGrace Truck for liquids- Fuel Type: Diesel 0 km, BioGrace REFINING OF RAPESEED OIL Yield: Rapeseed oil 0.96 MJoil/MJoil, BioGrace Energy Consumption: Average Electricity Mix in Turkey 0.0008 MJ/MJoil, BioGrace Steam (from NG boiler) 0.0115 MJ/MJoil, BioGrace NG Boiler: Natural gas input/MJsteam 1.111 MJ/MJsteam , BioGrace Natural gas (4000 km, EU mix quality) 0.013