Küresel Yeşil Sistemin Türkiye'nin Sanayileşme Politikalarına Etkileri

Abstract

The current study examines whether the pricing of greenhouse gas emissions applied within the scope of combating climate change may cause a shift in competition, and whether this will affect Turkey's industrial policy. For this purpose, by using the tools developed in the Economic Complexity Atlas literature, the product-based composite indicator calculation method was followed for the purpose of prioritizing the products that Turkey can head towards with the support of the industrialization policy. Calculations were made with 43 countries and 5,199 product data. The prioritization made for the period when climate change did not cause a shift on the competitive ground was called Brown Atlas, and the prioritization made after wearing green glasses was called Green Atlas, and an answer was sought by focusing on the differences between these two lists. In both the Brown and Green Atlas, the following four variables are quantified and included in the objective function: (i) the country's current competitiveness in the relevant product, (ii) the compatibility of the country's current capabilities with the relevant product, (iii) the complexity of the relevant product, (iv) the link of the product with new products. On top of these four variables, an emission intensity indicator for products is included in the objective function of the prioritization process in Green Atlas. The results show that there is a significant difference in the priority lists of countries when green glasses are used. The effects of this differentiation can be grouped under three dimensions: whether to be included in the list, the order of the products in both lists, and the sectoral composition. When making a comparison between countries, it has been determined that the change in product prioritization of many countries may be higher than the example of Turkey.