Ulaşım Sektörünün Düşük Karbon Ekonomisine Geçişteki Rolünün Analizi
Tekeli, Şükran Elçin
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Emissions from transportation play a significant role in the deterioration of air quality and human health. In our country, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector increased by 132% in 2000-2017 and these emissions reached up to 85 Mt CO2 equivalent. Turkey while aiming to reduce GHG emissions in the transition to a low carbon economy, on the other hand it is necessary to keep the economic development. For this reason, it is important to analyze the cost impact of replacing new generation technology hybrid and electric vehicles with high polluting vehicles. In the literature, there are studies on the reduction of GHG emissions in the transport sector in Turkey. However, there are no studies in the literature that the use of new generation clean technology hybrid and electric vehicles is planned to be used to reduce emissions with cost-effective transportation. In addition, only emissions from the vehicle were calculated in these studies, but emissions especially in the electric supply of electric vehicles were not included in the calculations. Also, the effect of using clean sources as fuel on carbon emissions was observed, but no analysis about the cost value of that has been reported. In this study, the current vehicle fleet information was determined and the effects of new generation clean technology hybrid and electric vehicles on air quality, economy and electricity demand were analyzed based on various scenarios. COPERT emission model is used to estimate GHG emissions associated with the road transport in Turkey based on scenarios. Also, GHG emissions from electricity consumption of electric vehicles are calculated and the effect of renewable energy resource shares on these emissions is also investigated. According to the results, if the share of hybrid and electric vehicles in the fleet is 20%, the emissions are estimated to be reduced by 12% for GHG emissions and 42% for pollutant emissions compared to the estimated based on the business-as-usual scenario. The effect of electric vehicles on electricity demand is examined. It is estimated that the impact of electric vehicles participating in traffic on electricity demand will be quite low. Economic and environmental cost benefit analysis are calculated based on scenarios. It is known that air pollution causes respiratory diseases and cancer diseases thus causes many premature deaths. Health costs related to pollutant emissions are also calculated in the study. It is estimated that 174 billion TRY can be saved if a suitable scenario is applied. In this way, a database is provided that will contribute to the creation of realistic policies on the basis of emissions from transportation in transition to a low carbon economy.
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