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dc.contributor.authorReitsma, Marissa B.
dc.contributor.authorFullman, Nancy
dc.contributor.authorNg, Marie
dc.contributor.authorSalama, Joseph S.
dc.contributor.authorAbajobir, Amanuel
dc.contributor.authorAbate, Kalkidan Hassen
dc.contributor.authorAbbafati, Cristiana
dc.contributor.authorAbera, Semaw Ferede
dc.contributor.authorAbraham, Biju
dc.contributor.authorAbyu, Gebre Yitayih
dc.contributor.authorAdebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
dc.contributor.authorAl-Aly, Ziyad
dc.contributor.authorAleman, Alicia V.
dc.contributor.authorAli, Raghib
dc.contributor.authorAl Alkerwi, Ala'a
dc.contributor.authorAllebeck, Peter
dc.contributor.authorAl-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
dc.contributor.authorAmare, Azmeraw T.
dc.contributor.authorAmberbir, Alemayehu
dc.contributor.authorAmmar, Walid
dc.contributor.authorAmrock, Stephen Marc
dc.contributor.authorAntonio, Carl Abelardo T.
dc.contributor.authorAsayesh, Hamid
dc.contributor.authorAtnafu, Niguse Tadela
dc.contributor.authorAzzopardi, Peter
dc.contributor.authorBanerjee, Amitava
dc.contributor.authorBarac, Aleksandra
dc.contributor.authorBarrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
dc.contributor.authorBasto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
dc.contributor.authorBazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
dc.contributor.authorBedi, Neeraj
dc.contributor.authorBell, Brent
dc.contributor.authorBello, Aminu K.
dc.contributor.authorBensenor, Isabela M.
dc.contributor.authorBeyene, Addisu Shunu
dc.contributor.authorBhala, Neeraj
dc.contributor.authorBiryukov, Stan
dc.contributor.authorBolt, Kaylin
dc.contributor.authorBrenner, Hermann
dc.contributor.authorButt, Zahid
dc.contributor.authorCavalleri, Fiorella
dc.contributor.authorCercy, Kelly
dc.contributor.authorChen, Honglei
dc.contributor.authorChristopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
dc.contributor.authorCiobanu, Liliana G.
dc.contributor.authorColistro, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorColomar, Mercedes
dc.contributor.authorCornaby, Leslie
dc.contributor.authorDai, Xiaochen
dc.contributor.authorDamtew, Solomon Abrha
dc.contributor.authorDandona, Lalit
dc.contributor.authorDandona, Rakhi
dc.contributor.authorDansereau, Emily
dc.contributor.authorDavletov, Kairat
dc.contributor.authorDayama, Anand
dc.contributor.authorDegfie, Tizta Tilahun
dc.contributor.authorDeribew, Amare
dc.contributor.authorDharmaratne, Samath D.
dc.contributor.authorDimtsu, Balem Demtsu
dc.contributor.authorDoyle, Kerrie E.
dc.contributor.authorEndries, Aman Yesuf
dc.contributor.authorErmakov, Sergey Petrovich
dc.contributor.authorEstep, Kara
dc.contributor.authorFaraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
dc.contributor.authorFarzadfar, Farshad
dc.contributor.authorFeigin, Valery L.
dc.contributor.authorFeigl, Andrea B.
dc.contributor.authorFischer, Florian
dc.contributor.authorFriedman, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorGhiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
dc.contributor.authorGall, Seana L.
dc.contributor.authorGao, Wayne
dc.contributor.authorGillum, Richard F.
dc.contributor.authorGold, Audra L.
dc.contributor.authorGopalani, Sameer Vali
dc.contributor.authorGotay, Carolyn C.
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rahul
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rajeev
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Vipin
dc.contributor.authorHamadeh, Randah Ribhi
dc.contributor.authorHankey, Graeme
dc.contributor.authorHarb, Hilda L.
dc.contributor.authorHay, Simon I.
dc.contributor.authorHorino, Masako
dc.contributor.authorHorita, Nobuyuki
dc.contributor.authorHosgood, H. Dean
dc.contributor.authorHusseini, Abdullatif
dc.contributor.authorIleanu, Bogdan Vasile
dc.contributor.authorIslami, Farhad
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Guohong
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Ying
dc.contributor.authorJonas, Jost B.
dc.contributor.authorKabir, Zubair
dc.contributor.authorKamal, Ritul
dc.contributor.authorKasaeian, Amir
dc.contributor.authorKesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
dc.contributor.authorKhader, Yousef S.
dc.contributor.authorKhalil, Ibrahim
dc.contributor.authorKhang, Young-Ho
dc.contributor.authorKhera, Sahil
dc.contributor.authorKhubchandani, Jagdish
dc.contributor.authorKim, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yun Jin
dc.contributor.authorKimokoti, Ruth W.
dc.contributor.authorKinfu, Yohannes
dc.contributor.authorKnibbs, Luke D.
dc.contributor.authorKokubo, Yoshihiro
dc.contributor.authorKolte, Dhaval
dc.contributor.authorKopec, Jacek
dc.contributor.authorKosen, Soewarta
dc.contributor.authorKotsakis, Georgios A.
dc.contributor.authorKoul, Parvaiz A.
dc.contributor.authorKoyanagi, Ai
dc.contributor.authorKrohn, Kristopher J.
dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Hans
dc.contributor.authorDefo, Barthelemy Kuate
dc.contributor.authorBicer, Burcu Kucuk
dc.contributor.authorKulkarni, Chanda
dc.contributor.authorKumar, G. Anil
dc.contributor.authorLeasher, Janet L.
dc.contributor.authorLee, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorLeinsalu, Mall
dc.contributor.authorLi, Tong
dc.contributor.authorLinn, Shai
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Shiwei
dc.contributor.authorLo, Loon-Tzian
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Alan D.
dc.contributor.authorMa, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorAbd El Razek, Hassan Magdy
dc.contributor.authorMajeed, Azeem
dc.contributor.authorMalekzadeh, Reza
dc.contributor.authorMalta, Deborah Carvalho
dc.contributor.authorManamo, Wondimu Ayele
dc.contributor.authorMartinez-Raga, Jose
dc.contributor.authorMekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane
dc.contributor.authorMendoza, Walter
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Ted R.
dc.contributor.authorMohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
dc.contributor.authorMorawska, Lidia
dc.contributor.authorMusa, Kamarul Imran
dc.contributor.authorNagel, Gabriele
dc.contributor.authorNeupane, Sudan Prasad
dc.contributor.authorQuyen Nguyen
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Grant
dc.contributor.authorOh, In-Hwan
dc.contributor.authorOyekale, Abayomi Samuel
dc.contributor.authorMahesh, P. A.
dc.contributor.authorPana, Adrian
dc.contributor.authorPark, Eun-Kee
dc.contributor.authorPatil, Snehal T.
dc.contributor.authorPatton, George C.
dc.contributor.authorPedro, Joao
dc.contributor.authorQorbani, Mostafa
dc.contributor.authorRafay, Anwar
dc.contributor.authorRahman, Mahfuzar
dc.contributor.authorRai, Rajesh Kumar
dc.contributor.authorRam, Usha
dc.contributor.authorRanabhat, Chhabi Lal
dc.contributor.authorRefaat, Amany H.
dc.contributor.authorReinig, Nickolas
dc.contributor.authorRoba, Hirbo Shore
dc.contributor.authorRodriguez, Alina
dc.contributor.authorRoman, Yesenia
dc.contributor.authorRoth, Gregory
dc.contributor.authorRoy, Ambuj
dc.contributor.authorSagar, Rajesh
dc.contributor.authorSalomon, Joshua
dc.contributor.authorSanabria, Juan
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Itamar de Souza
dc.contributor.authorSartorius, Benn
dc.contributor.authorSatpathy, Maheswar
dc.contributor.authorSawhney, Monika
dc.contributor.authorSawyer, Susan
dc.contributor.authorSaylan, Mete
dc.contributor.authorSchaub, Michael P.
dc.contributor.authorSchluger, Neil
dc.contributor.authorSchutte, Aletta Elisabeth
dc.contributor.authorSepanlou, Sadaf G.
dc.contributor.authorSerdar, Berrin
dc.contributor.authorShaikh, Masood Ali
dc.contributor.authorShe, Jun
dc.contributor.authorShin, Min-Jeong
dc.contributor.authorShiri, Rahman
dc.contributor.authorShishani, Kawkab
dc.contributor.authorShiue, Ivy
dc.contributor.authorSigfusdottir, Inga Dora
dc.contributor.authorSilverberg, Jonathan I.
dc.contributor.authorSingh, Jasvinder
dc.contributor.authorSingh, Virendra
dc.contributor.authorSlepak, Erica Leigh
dc.contributor.authorSoneji, Samir
dc.contributor.authorSoriano, Joan B.
dc.contributor.authorSoshnikov, Sergey
dc.contributor.authorSreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.
dc.contributor.authorStein, Dan J.
dc.contributor.authorStranges, Saverio
dc.contributor.authorSubart, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorSwaminathan, Soumya
dc.contributor.authorSzoeke, Cassandra E. I.
dc.contributor.authorTefera, Worku Mekonnen
dc.contributor.authorTopor-Madry, Roman
dc.contributor.authorTran, Bach
dc.contributor.authorTsilimparis, Nikolaos
dc.contributor.authorTymeson, Hayley
dc.contributor.authorUkwaja, Kingsley Nnanna
dc.contributor.authorUpdike, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorUthman, Olalekan A.
dc.contributor.authorViolante, Francesco Saverio
dc.contributor.authorVladimirov, Sergey K.
dc.contributor.authorVlassov, Vasiliy
dc.contributor.authorVollset, Stein Emil
dc.contributor.authorVos, Theo
dc.contributor.authorWeiderpass, Elisabete
dc.contributor.authorWen, Chi-Pan
dc.contributor.authorWerdecker, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Shelley
dc.contributor.authorWubshet, Mamo
dc.contributor.authorXiao, Lin
dc.contributor.authorYakob, Bereket
dc.contributor.authorYano, Yuichiro
dc.contributor.authorYe, Penpeng
dc.contributor.authorYonemoto, Naohiro
dc.contributor.authorYoon, Seok-Jun
dc.contributor.authorYounis, Mustafa Z.
dc.contributor.authorYu, Chuanhua
dc.contributor.authorZaidi, Zoubida
dc.contributor.authorZaki, Maysaa El Sayed
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Anthony Lin
dc.contributor.authorZipkin, Ben
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Christopher J. L.
dc.contributor.authorForouzanfar, Mohammad H.
dc.contributor.authorGakidou, Emmanuela
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-10T11:09:54Z
dc.date.available2019-12-10T11:09:54Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11655/14768
dc.description.abstractBackground The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Science Inc
dc.relation.isversionof10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectGeneral & Internal Medicine
dc.titleSmoking Prevalence and Attributable Disease Burden in 195 Countries and Territories, 1990-2015: A Systematic Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.relation.journalLancet
dc.contributor.departmentHalk Sağlığı
dc.identifier.volume389
dc.identifier.issue10082
dc.identifier.startpage1885
dc.identifier.endpage1906
dc.description.indexWoS
dc.description.indexScopus


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